Forum: Micro Stakes
11-27-2007, 04:28 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 38
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-27-2007, 02:56 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 55
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-27-2007, 02:54 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 55
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-27-2007, 02:40 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 55
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-27-2007, 01:21 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 55
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-19-2007, 11:28 PM
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Replies: 3
Views: 25
NL2 (lolz): Top set facing scary river
Limited HH on villain, but he's a typical 65/0/1.5 after 57 hands. Line check overall would be helpful, but most of all, are you calling this raise on the river when the flush card hits?
PokerStars...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-17-2007, 06:20 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 27
Marginal hands against unbelievably bad players
Villain is running 90/21/1.5 over 29 hands and has repeatedly shown to be a complete station(59% wtsd, 41% $at sd... and called with some pathetic trash on many of those). I had only been able to...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 03:53 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 03:17 PM
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Replies: 11
Views: 63
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 03:05 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
Do you really think villain is stupid enough to think he can get you off of the hand with that short of a stack?
I think the possibility this is a bluff is minuscule at best. If it's a bluff, he...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 02:41 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
He wouldn't, which is why the argument of checking the flop is ridiculous in the first place. If he's playing AT, he's playing JJ-QQ. He's calling your flop bet no matter what, and if he's folding...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 02:39 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 45
Re: TOP2 river play?
Damn near four to one to call.
As played, I can't imagine he's folding to a push, even with TPTK. Still, even if he's got the flush 70% of the time, EV=.30*(36.36)+.70*(6.43)
EV=+$6.407 for the...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 02:14 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
I'm only making the FE argument because people are suggesting he won't call with JJ-QQ. I think that he will, personally, and if he doesn't, I'm not convinced that's a bad thing because if he lays...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 02:07 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
Because we have FE 0% of the time we check, and I think if he can lay ANYTHING down, he would probably lay down Ax (which, given his stats, it's not impossible he has) if we bet first.
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 01:53 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
The math for the curious:
<font color="red">Assuming 70% chance of AA, AJs+, AJo+ = 6.590% equity</font>
<font color="blue">Assuming 30% chance of JJ-QQ = 89.394% equity</font>
Folding equity of...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 01:36 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
Any FE adds EV to the initial shove, by the way. If you think there's no FE, than the shove is still the right call because you're not folding to his shove, so what's the difference?
This is the...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 01:35 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
That's easy. If you use my calculations of 70/30 Ax vs. beat hands, calling his push is $.33+EV. However, if you add in a 10% FE that you won't have if he shoves, the initial shove is +$3.13 EV
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 01:25 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
Look at the stats. He's raising with more than that.
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 01:10 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
Which means that the assumption that villain never calls the flop push is dubious, because we're assuming he has one deficiency but not the other. If he checks it through with QQ/JJ, we're giving him...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 01:05 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
I guess what I'm arguing is that he'll call with some hands that we beat, and he'll probably fold some hands that beat us, so the WA/WB argument is bunk. His VP$IP and PFR are high enough that he...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 01:01 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
There's just too many assumptions around the check argument for me. He could have a myriad of hands, given the fact he's a hyper-aggro given the stats (granted, probably a smaller sample than you'd...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 12:57 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
For that matter, if you push with an ace high flop, he could put you on AA and fold AJ-AQ. You're assuming the guy is clairvoyant with his reads but completely ignorant of pot odds?
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 12:54 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
If he has no idea of pot odds, he also probably doesn't know anything about reads, either. How do you know he puts you on KK if you're playing against the donk of the century? There's too many...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 12:49 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
You win the pot 100% of the time if he folds. You lose the pot, let's say, 70% of the time if he pushes and you call. He's pushing 100% of the time if you check, and you can't make an EV decision...
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Forum: Micro Stakes
11-15-2007, 12:46 PM
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Replies: 71
Views: 570
Re: NL25 KK
If you think he does this 70% with Ax, it's still +EV by $.33
HINT: LOOK AT STATS
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