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Search: Posts Made By: sillyarms
Forum: Sports Betting 11-02-2007, 06:19 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 122
Posted By sillyarms
Re: A Simple Kelly Problem I Can\'t Solve

Your Ev is $42 on the bet.
Your Ev is $20 on the arb.

The bet has higher EV. Take the bet.
Forum: Business, Finance, and Investing 06-12-2007, 10:14 PM
Replies: 150
Views: 494
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Taking out a prosper loan to buy stocks

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to get 8-10% returns on the market (historical averages that most investors don't even get)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of what you are saying,...
Forum: Internet Gambling 06-12-2007, 09:39 AM
Replies: 260
Views: 2,223
Posted By sillyarms
Re: WSEX: Official Monthly Thread: June. (#10 of 10.)

I would like no-limit heads up cash games.
Forum: Business, Finance, and Investing 06-12-2007, 08:49 AM
Replies: 150
Views: 494
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Taking out a prosper loan to buy stocks

[ QUOTE ]
You have to get 8-10% returns on the market (historical averages that most investors don't even get)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of what you are saying, but if 8-10% is the...
Forum: Other Other Topics 06-08-2007, 08:53 AM
Replies: 141
Views: 510
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Favorite Quotes from Rappers

But I make moves -- shake them tricks up out they shoestrings
Be more precise when we do things
Cause life like shakin the dice, but I buck back twice
like five-deuce, fo'-trey, okay

-outkast
Forum: High Stakes 05-31-2007, 02:36 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 121
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Something I dont understand: How SBRUGBY withdraws money from FTP?

an offshore bank account comes to mind. If it were me i would transfer it from the poker site to an offshore bank. Then from the offshore bank to my real bank.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-29-2007, 08:55 AM
Replies: 56
Views: 319
Posted By sillyarms
Re: NL SH> Small pairs in early position

If the table was passive i could see limping in ep with this hand.

If the table was not passive and I thought it likely i would be 3bet if i raised i would fold 10 handed utg.

If i was...
Forum: Small Stakes 05-29-2007, 08:41 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 64
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Bottom Set, Possible Fold

[ QUOTE ]
You're thinking about folding a set live for 100bb? LOL!

[/ QUOTE ]

This line of logic works well for beginning players. 99% of the time it is good advice, but like 1% of the...
Forum: Small Stakes 05-29-2007, 08:26 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 31
Posted By sillyarms
Forum: Internet Gambling 05-29-2007, 05:37 AM
Replies: 198
Views: 1,432
Posted By sillyarms
Re: WSEX: Official Monthly Thread: May. (#9 of 9.)

[ QUOTE ]
We have no plans for HU NL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please make plans. Any specific reason why not? I get tired of playing hu at a 6max table then having someone else sit in just as I am...
Forum: Psychology 05-28-2007, 04:30 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 65
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Is Chess helping or hurting my poker game?

it helps me in thinking ahead and predicting how my opponets react.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-28-2007, 04:09 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 40
Posted By sillyarms
Re: 3-betting ranges vs. steals

[ QUOTE ]
what range would YOU do this with if you were BB, against an unknown button?

[/ QUOTE ]

88+
AQ+
Random air+
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 11:16 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 88
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Like Doyle says: Never double up a short-stack donk in an unraised

Ok, I just did the math. Assuming that we are either chopping 3 ways or losing to 69. If our opponet has 69 more than 10.62355658% of the time this call has -ev.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 11:00 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 88
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Like Doyle says: Never double up a short-stack donk in an unraised

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. Guess she was right. She said I made a bad fold and got lucky.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was alot closer than everyone seems to think. I'd put the river call at about nuetral...
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 10:03 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 28
Posted By sillyarms
Re: 100NL BvB - Stop the bleeding!!

either raise or fold pf. I don't mind either one.

flop looks fine.

Turn i could see a check fold but this looks fine.

river check fold.
Forum: Business, Finance, and Investing 05-27-2007, 08:45 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 93
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Detecting Deception

[ QUOTE ]
There are a litany of things to look out for. THey include:
1) Attacking the questioner
2) Repeating the question (this is a stall to think up a lie)
3) Belittling the question
4)...
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 05:35 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 88
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Like Doyle says: Never double up a short-stack donk in an unraised

[ QUOTE ]
You say in that spot it would make sense to do that with 96?
Is that really true? Normally i would think that i get two pair to fold with an overbet like this.
But any straight i...
Forum: High Stakes 05-27-2007, 04:33 AM
Replies: 70
Views: 246
Posted By sillyarms
Re: listen...

[ QUOTE ]
Blood, sweat, tears, no?
[ QUOTE ]
Bald Sweaters?

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

building sweaters.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 04:07 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 88
Posted By sillyarms
Re: Like Doyle says: Never double up a short-stack donk in an unraised

nobody sane calls bb without a straight. The overbet is a classic stackadonk move for a hand like 69. That being said I don't know if i can find a fold here. The 66/3 makes me call. Against 2...
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 03:50 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 58
Posted By sillyarms
Re: NL 100-QQ gets c/r in steal situation

If you 3bet the flop any reasonable amount you're not deep enough to fold to a 4bet.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 03:47 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 88
Posted By sillyarms
Re: NL100 overpair on 3 suited board

looks fine. I agree with r6 that you could probally bet turn as he has the Ac here alot.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 03:41 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 39
Posted By sillyarms
Re: A bluff

not bad. reaks of AK. pfr is standard size.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 03:37 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 256
Posted By sillyarms
Re: NL 100 KK kind of deep

[ QUOTE ]
When you call preflop i assume your thinking was to push as long as an A didn't flop??


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really like a raise on the flop as it allows our oppenet to get away...
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 03:34 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 58
Posted By sillyarms
Re: NL 100-QQ gets c/r in steal situation

I'd have to have a specific reason/read to call this turn. Against some nittier opponets I would fold flop. Against a random opponet fold turn.
Forum: Small Stakes 05-27-2007, 03:31 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 26
Posted By sillyarms
Re: 200NL deep: solid villain pushes for cbet on paired flop

You say he hasen't got out of line so this looks like a value bet to me. I'd expect to see AA here alot, though QQ wouldn't supprise me. Overall I like a fold. Too much risk for too little reward.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 240

 
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