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Forum: Probability

11-21-2007, 06:50 PM

Replies: 7

What am I screwing up?

Posted By Top

Re: What am I screwing up?

Clarification:

I meant to say that you should divide the payout by ten to get the proper payout ratio for game option 2.

So for Option 1 you should pay them $41.7, $69.4, $115.7, etc...

For...

Forum: Probability

11-21-2007, 06:38 PM

Replies: 7

What am I screwing up?

Posted By Top

Re: What am I screwing up?

One of the problems is that you are doing your pay-out odds calculations wrong. Please see my table for the correct calculations:

#of Reds Probabilty Pay Ratio $10 Payout 1000X Payout...

Forum: Probability

11-13-2007, 02:02 PM

Replies: 6

Problem: EV++ and risk tolerance in a multiple decision scenario.

Posted By Top

Re: Problem: EV++ and risk tolerance in a multiple decision scenario.

There are different ways of looking at this problem. Do we just pick an arbitrary stopping point because it 'feels' right? Or do we try to apply mathematical principles and real world scenarios?
...

Forum: Probability

11-12-2007, 10:45 PM

Replies: 6

Problem: EV++ and risk tolerance in a multiple decision scenario.

Posted By Top

Re: Problem: EV++ and risk tolerance in a multiple decision scenario.

I am surprised your risk tolerance is so low. I didn't think anyone here would stop at $4000. I certainly wouldn't. The funny part is that by stopping at $4000 - you pass up an opportunity to have...

Forum: Probability

11-12-2007, 08:20 PM

Replies: 6

Problem: EV++ and risk tolerance in a multiple decision scenario.

Posted By Top

Problem: EV++ and risk tolerance in a multiple decision scenario.

Here is a problem that I sometime think about as a fun theoretical excercise. Sometime I pose it to others to find out how they think about EV and risk tolerance:

A rich person offers you $1000....

Forum: Probability

10-31-2007, 05:59 PM

Replies: 3

How To Calculate Odds of A, K, Q, or J Hitting

Posted By Top

Re: How To Calculate Odds of A, K, Q, or J Hitting

Or if you want to do it your way:

In this case you want to do an OR operation. There is no easy way of doing an OR operation in probability, so a reverse AND operation is usually done instead,...

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