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Forum: Sports Betting 09-29-2007, 07:50 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Yes, people that really know football all know that teams never lose to worse opponents and that turnovers are all skill. They also know that you should never take the price into account on a...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-29-2007, 07:30 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Just wanted to announce early that USC at Oregon +200 or higher (which I think we'll see) is my pick of the year. It took 4 turnovers including a fluke touchback on the last play of the game for them...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-26-2007, 09:27 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Virginia ran the ball a lot because they're a running team and that's what they do. They still averaged less than 3 YPC though and even Peerman averaged less than 5 YPC. Sewell's scrambling/option...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-26-2007, 07:58 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

[ QUOTE ]
What about Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech?

Tech has laid an egg since crushing ND opening week. Clemson has beaten up some decent teams. I find it hard to believe that Clemson is only a 1...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-26-2007, 03:21 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

The point isn't that it was bad for that game. It's just that Oregon's consistently had trouble against the run and Cal is the most explosive rushing team they've faced. The number OU gave up against...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-25-2007, 10:47 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

[ QUOTE ]
So Cal is not the favorite on a neutral field against Oregon? Bizarre.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll admit that I don't really get the line. I'm higher on Oregon than anyone, (have them as #5 in...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-25-2007, 06:08 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

[ QUOTE ]
I only remember seeing that for NCAAB

I've just tried to adjust the numbes myselves through guesstimation

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, that's probably where I remembered it from. It seemed...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-25-2007, 09:45 AM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

BTW, this is a little off-topic, but does anyone know where I can find rankings for adjusted rush defense or adjusted pass efficiency defense where the numbers are adjusted for the offenses faced? I...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-25-2007, 09:14 AM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Honestly, so many people are on USF that it's starting to scare me a little bit. I still think it's just the squares having no idea that USF can play with West Virginia, but part of me still thinks...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-24-2007, 07:21 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

That's a good point on LSU/Tulane. Classic sandwich game in between S. Carolina and Florida. I'm probably not going to play it at +40, but if it drifts up to 41 or 42 later in the week, I'll hop on.
Forum: Sports Betting 09-23-2007, 07:17 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

I also like Air Force +2.5 at Navy and Pitt at Virginia -7 at first look. Again, going to wait before making any actual bets though.
Forum: Sports Betting 09-23-2007, 06:38 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Ohio State -21.5, Michigan State +7, and Alabama +2.5 all look really good too. I'm going to wait for 2 cent lines on Matchbook instead of taking 10 cent lines on Bookmaker though.
Forum: Sports Betting 09-23-2007, 06:35 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Wow, I'll be all over USF at that price. And it looks like Clemson +1 didn't last long, already up to -3.
Forum: Sports Betting 09-23-2007, 06:31 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

USF has more starters back and less key losses than WVU from a team that won at Morgantown last year and they're 11-2 at home since the start of '05 so I think they have a pretty big edge there. I do...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-23-2007, 06:14 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Actually, I think I should revise that WVU/USF number. New guess is that it opens at WVU -3, immediately gets bet down to -2.5, and kind of stays there before getting slowly bet back up to -3 at...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-23-2007, 06:07 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

[ QUOTE ]
Notre Dame @ Purdue -24?

[/ QUOTE ]

Too high. Purdue's a little worse than MSU, so I'd guess maybe 21. Maybe even 20 just to stick it to the stubborn Irish fans who say "Notre Dame...
Forum: Sports Betting 09-23-2007, 05:44 PM
Replies: 154
Views: 925
Posted By iggymcfly
Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

Here are some guesses on the high profile games:

Cal at Oregon -2 (fair line -4.5)
West Virginia -4 at South Florida (fair line -2.5)
Michigan State at Wisconsin -4.5 (fair line -4)
Clemson -7...
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