Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-26-2007, 01:10 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
I just want to add that i assumed normality whan I calculated the odds of having 50 correct descisions. It is the odds of having a score of 2.7 standard deviation above the mean.
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-26-2007, 12:06 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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My suggestion would be to emphasize the number of correct river decisions in a row in a limit game. For example, say there is a 75% chance that a player is ahead if you're betting on the...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-26-2007, 03:16 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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How do you explain NEVER losing a river confrontation?
How do you explain NEVER calling on a river, only betting/folding?
How do you explain calling for tourney life with Thigh?
...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-25-2007, 06:16 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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1/(2^42) = 1/(4,398,047,000,000) (approximately) which is approximately 1/10,000,000,000,000 (ten quadrillion, if I remember correctly).
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I have seen a lot of this kind...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-25-2007, 12:57 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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1) Could you please explain why certain key stats are missing?
2) Why do you think that the stats are dependent on each other?
3) How do you like modelling this case, what assumptions...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-25-2007, 10:17 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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People are getting mathematically longwinded here with calculations that don't factor in EVERY PT stat. It takes an understanding of poker, not statistics, to grasp this.
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-25-2007, 10:07 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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yes but who wrote that? I have never seen the 260 confirmed by anybody with access to the data
on a sidenote: how reliable is the SD number itself from such a small sample?
[/ QUOTE...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-25-2007, 10:00 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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yeah, it is, but you haven't calculated the probability of our fundamental suspicion, which isn't that he folded everytime someone else had a big pair (he didn't) but that he started wit...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-24-2007, 06:54 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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Anyway, a SD of 270PTBB/100 sounds really extreme too me and I'm not too sure that figure is beleivable even for a maniac like this.
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that number seems to...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-24-2007, 06:31 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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yeah. it pains me to see that this thread is only about math now. and to me as a mathnoob some of the assumptions used for modelling the case seem strange/incorrect. but as most posters...
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Forum: Probability
09-24-2007, 05:42 PM
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Replies: 13
Views: 122
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-24-2007, 02:13 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
[ QUOTE ]
yeah, it is, but you haven't calculated the probability of our fundamental suspicion, which isn't that he folded everytime someone else had a big pair (he didn't) but that he started wit...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-24-2007, 11:53 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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thats nice, but i bet you blow at poker, because you don't seem to understand the fundamental reasons for our suspicion
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I'm not sure about you but I have read several...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-24-2007, 11:04 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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also, can we stop the half baked attempts at statistical analysis? Half of those above are def wrong and I only took a semester of stats.
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Maybe you should have taken...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-24-2007, 10:33 AM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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knappis, you are much closer to the truth. First, you had some problem entering the numbers into calculator or something. The expression calculates to 1/12,650 [lol, I had problems too]....
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-23-2007, 06:17 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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Dude, it's not your calculation, it's your methodology.
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NP m8. But I like my methodology since it focuses on the statitsical properties behind the mechanisms generating...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-23-2007, 06:05 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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Dude, I'm sorry, but this is out of left field.
I stand by my post, and will really have to stop there with any further odds discussions.
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Just let me know whats...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
09-23-2007, 05:41 PM
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Replies: 382
Views: 1,753
Re: Decent Online News Article
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Well.... no.
With a VPIP of 90%, there is a 1/10 that Villain folds.
It's a little more complicated to figure out how often one of his opponents has AA-JJ, but 10% is somewhere in...
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