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Forum: Small Stakes 12-01-2007, 09:55 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 9
Posted By pococurante
Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?

blanko: That's absolutely true. But a LOT of people get tilty or at least let the losses affect their game. I think most people underestimate the value of reduced variance.

I'm not saying shoving...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-01-2007, 09:43 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 9
Posted By pococurante
Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?

I think you're giving him too much credit. I seriously doubt he'd fold kings there, and he could have all kinds of other hands. He could have A4 of spades, or maybe any flush draw. AQ isn't...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 11-30-2007, 11:04 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 23
Posted By pococurante
Re: FAIL at Martingale System sfksdgklshk

lol @ martingaling where only 3 bad hands = broke
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 11-23-2007, 10:53 PM
Replies: 15
Views: 3
Posted By pococurante
Re: My first graph - NOV - Beat, Brag or Varience?

beat: you're too dumb to figure out if 7k per month is good

hint- multiply by 12
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 11-22-2007, 05:51 AM
Replies: 72
Views: 3
Posted By pococurante
Forum: Probability 11-22-2007, 05:41 AM
Replies: 27
Views: 142
Posted By pococurante
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?

[ QUOTE ]
There are more episodes filmed than are aired. Contestants agree prior to the show that if their episode is not aired they don't get paid. Getting a good offer early on and accepting isn't...
Forum: Brick and Mortar 11-19-2007, 09:09 PM
Replies: 20
Views: 3
Posted By pococurante
Re: Villain offers to show a card

Can't really fold top two here. Move all in and hope you're still good.

IMO the villain offering to show a card is a sign of weakness. If he was that strong, he would shut up and let you get all...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-17-2007, 04:43 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 3
Posted By pococurante
Re: Help me with my stats and question about standard deviation.

Don't skip levels, you want to move up slowly and gradually.
Forum: Poker Theory 11-17-2007, 04:39 AM
Replies: 4
Views: 6
Posted By pococurante
Re: Every Poker Player Should Know

EV is simple. If you're 70% to win a $100 pot, your EV is $70. If you're 50% to win, 10% to tie, 40% to lose, your EV is $55.

Fold equity is the value that your hand gains when you bet. Suppose...
Forum: Poker Theory 11-17-2007, 04:12 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 3
Posted By pococurante
Re: Describe POKER on one sentence

[ QUOTE ]
Poker is fun, for everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Probability 11-17-2007, 04:10 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 3
Posted By pococurante
Re: Eeery Shuffle

Approximately 1 in 80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000

or if suits don't matter, divide the above number by 24.
Forum: Probability 11-16-2007, 12:29 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 4
Posted By pococurante
Re: 2 pair

1 in 119 to flop a flush
1 in 9.1 to flop a flush draw
1 in 50 to flop two pair
1 in 74 to flop trips

There is almost no reason to play low cards in this spot unless you know for sure you'll...
Forum: Probability 11-14-2007, 10:11 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 9
Posted By pococurante
Re: Seating Arrangement Problem

Randomly draw the seats, then start the button in front of the person whose turn it is to be the button.

If you are trying to be perfectly fair, then keep track of every starting position each...
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 11-14-2007, 04:41 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 2
Posted By pococurante
Re: a set? lol, whats that

here's the correct math

sqrt (70(1/9.51*8.51/9.51)) = 2.57
expected: 7.36
actual: 1
deviations: 2.47
odds of this happening: just over 1%
Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance 11-14-2007, 04:13 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 2
Posted By pococurante
Re: a set? lol, whats that

ignore this post and the one below it, I used all the wrong numbers, I fail
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 08:05 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 10
Posted By pococurante
Re: Problem: EV++ and risk tolerance in a multiple decision scenario.

Top: You are correct that there's no reason to stop just because it's being played multiple times in a row.

If someone offered me 8K with 1 to 5 odds of doubling it, I would probably not take the...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 08:00 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 6
Posted By pococurante
Re: Can Somebody Quantify this Bad Run?

While 12 hands is a small sample size, it's still enough to be significant. Obviously, it's normal to be a couple of wins away from the expected number. But it is statistically significant when you...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 07:54 PM
Replies: 27
Views: 142
Posted By pococurante
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?

Oddly enough, I've also seen reverse tilt on the show. Someone recently had an offer of $107k... the average case was worth about $135k, so it was a reasonable 80% of EV offer. The contestant chose...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 12:43 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 18
Posted By pococurante
Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The lottery is always -EV, due to taxes.

[/ QUOTE ]

And other forms of gambling aren't, because they DON'T pay taxes?

[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 04:48 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 18
Posted By pococurante
Re: Razz - paired cards

[ QUOTE ]
Only the A /images/graemlins/club.gif is unaccounted for.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahh... good eye there
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 01:33 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 18
Posted By pococurante
Re: Razz - paired cards

Hmm.... possibly the best way is just to count all the possible combinations including suits.

We know he holds the 2 of diamonds. The other potential cards he could hold: three 5s, four 4s, three...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 01:17 AM
Replies: 1
Views: 11
Posted By pococurante
Re: AP Bad Beat Jackpot

It's pretty tough to figure out the odds for this since there are so many variables. Here are some very rough numbers...

Quads over quads is more likely to happen than any hand involving a...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 12:54 AM
Replies: 27
Views: 142
Posted By pococurante
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

In fact, the entire game is structured in such a way, that a "deal" is usually higher than the actual amount in the box.

[/ QUOTE ]

I must not understand something...
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 12:50 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 9
Posted By pococurante
Re: no

Flu shots are like playing poker. -EV for most people, +EV for a select few.
Forum: Probability 11-13-2007, 12:47 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 18
Posted By pococurante
Re: Is Powerball Ever +EV with a high jackpot?

The lottery is always -EV, due to taxes.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 137

 
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