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Forum: Small Stakes 01-19-2007, 05:42 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 171
Posted By BadMongo
Re: Theory Post: Reraised Blind Battles and Bluffing with Marginal Han

Great post.

It would be interesting to see how your conclusions would change with different board textures. I may have to run some numbers of my own when I have the time...
Forum: Small Stakes 01-13-2007, 01:30 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

Pokey, glad you're still posting in this thread.

[ QUOTE ]
This is clearly true. Furthermore, while I have not looked closely at the distribution I believe it to be close enough to normal that...
Forum: Small Stakes 01-11-2007, 02:20 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
BadMongo, can you explain the formula you're using in the simulation?

=SQRT(-2*LN(RAND()))*SIN(2*PI()*RAND())

I'm good at other kinds of math, but I suck at statistics. So don't...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-20-2006, 05:36 PM
Replies: 36
Poll: Pf confusion
Views: 159
Posted By BadMongo
Re: Pf confusion

Thanks, that's what I was shooting for.
Forum: Small Stakes 12-20-2006, 04:28 PM
Replies: 36
Poll: Pf confusion
Views: 159
Posted By BadMongo
Re: Pf confusion

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, chill with the contention and the attitude. The best way to illustrate a point using EV calcs is to pick the best set of assumptions. To do this, you don't want to find a set...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-20-2006, 03:46 PM
Replies: 36
Poll: Pf confusion
Views: 159
Posted By BadMongo
Re: Pf confusion

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Did you read my post?

If you did, you'd see that I didn't assume anything.


[/ QUOTE ]
Forum: Small Stakes 12-20-2006, 03:21 PM
Replies: 36
Poll: Pf confusion
Views: 159
Posted By BadMongo
Re: Pf confusion

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Suppose that we have a villain who only 3-bets with the goods. Give him a range of {AA, KK, QQ, AK}. That's 3 +3 +6 +9 = 21 combinations of hands he could hold (given that we...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-20-2006, 01:44 PM
Replies: 36
Poll: Pf confusion
Views: 159
Posted By BadMongo
Re: Pf confusion

These types of questions are really tough to answer in a vacuum because the correct play depends so much on the villain's range. But let's look at what might happen if we push.

Suppose that we...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-18-2006, 05:21 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody ever sent me their HH-level data; all I got from anybody was summary statistics. I would imagine that some of the extreme grinders might be able to give you net gain/loss on a...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-18-2006, 02:24 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
This discussion is very familiar (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=mediumholdem&Number=4129105&fpart=1&PHPSESSID=)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the link. It's an...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 10:02 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
As I mentioned before, I have no idea what distribution would be appropriate for modeling poker winrates. I believe that a normal distribution underestimates the kertosis significantly...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 07:04 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

Pokey,

Fan-[censored]-tastic post, thanks for taking the time to explain this stuff in detail. It's been a while since a took my last stats course, but I see where I was going wrong now. This is...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 06:03 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
OP, one question. Sometimes the graph line will end before 100k hands, is that an error or something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure, I haven't had this happen.

I calculated my SD per hand...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 04:49 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

Pokey,

I don't think I understand your argument. You seem to agree with me that the sampling disribution will be normal. The only relevant properties of a normal distribution are its mean and SD....
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 03:00 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

Pokey, thanks for the post.

About this point though:
[ QUOTE ]
This is true, but it is also irrelevant. All that says is that we can reliably draw conclusions about our average winrate by...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 02:14 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
2. You assume that your return on a hand is normally distributed. It's not.

[/ QUOTE ]

I misinterpreted this the first time I read it. I thought you were saying that the sample...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 01:51 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

Pokey, thank you for the constructive criticism.

I an aware that my conclusions depend heavily on the normal assumption. Whether or not it is a close enough approximation is something I'll have to...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 01:05 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you have a ratio SD/Winrate of about 10, i cannot seem to find anything too horrible.
For exemple over a low sample i have 5PTBB/100 and 50 of SD.
Simulating that the huge...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 12:59 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sick.

The thing is, with a SD that high, you could get just about any number if you run the demo enough times. Any downswing imaginable is statistically >0. It really doesn't...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 12:57 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

FWIW the highest reported SD in the SSNL survey was just under 75, but its very likely that this is over a really small sample. The average was 48.6.
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 12:52 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

Sick.

The thing is, with a SD that high, you could get just about any number if you run the demo enough times. Any downswing imaginable is statistically >0. It really doesn't tell us anything...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 12:45 PM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

LOL

How many tries did it take you to get that graph?
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 11:49 AM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
The results aren't statistically impossible, but i'd guess you hand picked the ones that showed worst case scenarios.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, as I have stated several times, they are hand...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 04:06 AM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

One last post before I call it a night (this one's for Clayton):

12 PTBB/100 winner with a SD of 50
http://www3.sympatico.ca/ntcampbell/12-50.GIF

Seems like a good reason to work on your...
Forum: Small Stakes 12-17-2006, 03:57 AM
Replies: 146
Views: 535
Posted By BadMongo
Re: For those who don\'t think 30+ BI swings are a reality...

[ QUOTE ]
We need to make a distinction between "winning player" (~say, 4-5 PTBB/100)and "big winning player" (~say, 8+PTBB/100). Clayton, you're a big winner, and your view regarding variance...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 282
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