Forum: Small Stakes
12-01-2007, 09:55 AM
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Replies: 12
Views: 691
Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
blanko: That's absolutely true. But a LOT of people get tilty or at least let the losses affect their game. I think most people underestimate the value of reduced variance.
I'm not saying shoving...
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Forum: Small Stakes
12-01-2007, 09:43 AM
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Replies: 12
Views: 691
Re: Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?
I think you're giving him too much credit. I seriously doubt he'd fold kings there, and he could have all kinds of other hands. He could have A4 of spades, or maybe any flush draw. AQ isn't...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
11-30-2007, 11:04 AM
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Replies: 13
Views: 1,428
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
11-23-2007, 10:53 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 370
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
11-22-2007, 05:51 AM
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Replies: 72
Views: 1,375
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Forum: Probability
11-22-2007, 05:41 AM
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Replies: 27
Views: 4,752
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
[ QUOTE ]
There are more episodes filmed than are aired. Contestants agree prior to the show that if their episode is not aired they don't get paid. Getting a good offer early on and accepting isn't...
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Forum: Brick and Mortar
11-19-2007, 09:09 PM
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Replies: 20
Views: 436
Re: Villain offers to show a card
Can't really fold top two here. Move all in and hope you're still good.
IMO the villain offering to show a card is a sign of weakness. If he was that strong, he would shut up and let you get all...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-17-2007, 04:43 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 182
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-17-2007, 04:39 AM
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Replies: 4
Views: 168
Re: Every Poker Player Should Know
EV is simple. If you're 70% to win a $100 pot, your EV is $70. If you're 50% to win, 10% to tie, 40% to lose, your EV is $55.
Fold equity is the value that your hand gains when you bet. Suppose...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-17-2007, 04:12 AM
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Replies: 29
Views: 444
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Forum: Probability
11-17-2007, 04:10 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 177
Re: Eeery Shuffle
Approximately 1 in 80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000
or if suits don't matter, divide the above number by 24.
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Forum: Probability
11-16-2007, 12:29 AM
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Replies: 10
Views: 262
Re: 2 pair
1 in 119 to flop a flush
1 in 9.1 to flop a flush draw
1 in 50 to flop two pair
1 in 74 to flop trips
There is almost no reason to play low cards in this spot unless you know for sure you'll...
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Forum: Probability
11-14-2007, 10:11 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 278
Re: Seating Arrangement Problem
Randomly draw the seats, then start the button in front of the person whose turn it is to be the button.
If you are trying to be perfectly fair, then keep track of every starting position each...
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
11-14-2007, 04:41 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 307
Re: a set? lol, whats that
here's the correct math
sqrt (70(1/9.51*8.51/9.51)) = 2.57
expected: 7.36
actual: 1
deviations: 2.47
odds of this happening: just over 1%
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Forum: Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance
11-14-2007, 04:13 PM
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Replies: 21
Views: 307
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 08:05 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 241
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 08:00 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 234
Re: Can Somebody Quantify this Bad Run?
While 12 hands is a small sample size, it's still enough to be significant. Obviously, it's normal to be a couple of wins away from the expected number. But it is statistically significant when you...
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 07:54 PM
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Replies: 27
Views: 4,752
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
Oddly enough, I've also seen reverse tilt on the show. Someone recently had an offer of $107k... the average case was worth about $135k, so it was a reasonable 80% of EV offer. The contestant chose...
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 12:43 PM
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Replies: 16
Views: 475
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 04:48 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 561
Re: Razz - paired cards
[ QUOTE ]
Only the A /images/graemlins/club.gif is unaccounted for.
[/ QUOTE ]
ahh... good eye there
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 01:33 AM
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Replies: 14
Views: 561
Re: Razz - paired cards
Hmm.... possibly the best way is just to count all the possible combinations including suits.
We know he holds the 2 of diamonds. The other potential cards he could hold: three 5s, four 4s, three...
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 01:17 AM
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Replies: 1
Views: 244
Re: AP Bad Beat Jackpot
It's pretty tough to figure out the odds for this since there are so many variables. Here are some very rough numbers...
Quads over quads is more likely to happen than any hand involving a...
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 12:54 AM
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Replies: 27
Views: 4,752
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In fact, the entire game is structured in such a way, that a "deal" is usually higher than the actual amount in the box.
[/ QUOTE ]
I must not understand something...
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 12:50 AM
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Replies: 11
Views: 321
Re: no
Flu shots are like playing poker. -EV for most people, +EV for a select few.
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 12:47 AM
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Replies: 16
Views: 475
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