Forum: Probability
11-30-2007, 11:48 AM
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Replies: 17
Views: 1,903
Re: farha vs PA, hsp episode 14
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it doesn't even lower the variance that much.
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As the number of times things are run increases, the replacement/no replacement issue becomes a bit more significant. ...
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Forum: Probability
11-30-2007, 11:37 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 1,055
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Forum: Probability
11-27-2007, 05:41 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 539
Re: roulette
You might want to look at a site like:
http://www.gamingfloor.biz/forum/
which is (apparently) frequented by people who are in the business.
Another good thing to look at would be the Kelly...
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Forum: Probability
11-27-2007, 05:00 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 240
Re: probability of over-cards
There are 50 unknown cards, so the number of possible flops is
50 choose 3 = (50*49*48)/(3*2*1)
If you're holding 88o there are 24 overcards (A-9 * 4) so there are
(24 choose 0) * (26 choose 3) =...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-27-2007, 11:23 AM
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Replies: 3
Views: 335
Re: Game theory and bluffing question
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In general, you want the ratio between your bluffs and your legitimate bets to be about the same as the ratio between 1 bet and the pot size. This is so that your opponent can not...
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Forum: Probability
11-27-2007, 11:11 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 239
Re: Staked players in a game with the staker
Basically, unless there's some sort of collusive effect between the two players, the player who's doing the staking is a bit silly for playing against a player that he's also staking. Any pot where...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-15-2007, 06:37 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 306
Re: Bluffing the Flush
There are two aspects to a tactic like this:
Exploiting the psychology of a flush board.
The generic necessity of bluffing.
The tactic of semi-bluff to bluff on draw hands has merit in general. ...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-15-2007, 06:23 PM
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Replies: 12
Views: 347
Re: Need help with game theory and bluffing.
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Is it possible then to learn to play the same way as the bot?
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Probably not. Humans are not very good at randomizing their play. (Feel free to try to break even against...
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Forum: Probability
11-15-2007, 06:20 PM
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Replies: 9
Views: 278
Re: Seating Arrangement Problem
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Well, I'm pretty certain that I can't achieve fairness both in relation to the button and in relation to the other players. I figure the latter is more important, since position in...
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Forum: Probability
11-13-2007, 10:04 AM
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Replies: 27
Views: 4,751
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
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I'm sure this has been discussed here before, but the dynamic that makes the game more interesting is not pure EV, but how the value of money changes relative to how much you have.
[/...
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Forum: Probability
11-12-2007, 03:58 PM
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Replies: 27
Views: 4,751
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
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I must not understand something here.. can you explain?
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Basically, people really only feel the pressure to deal when there are one (or maybe two) large amounts and a...
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Forum: Probability
11-12-2007, 12:19 PM
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Replies: 27
Views: 4,751
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
I don't know how the deal offers are structured, and haven't seen any good sources on it. (And don't have sufficient masochism or patience to watch the show to do appropriate research.)
However,...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-12-2007, 02:47 AM
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Replies: 16
Views: 586
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Forum: Probability
11-12-2007, 02:17 AM
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Replies: 4
Views: 221
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Forum: Probability
11-11-2007, 10:49 PM
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Replies: 27
Views: 4,751
Re: DEAL or NO DEAL (TV Game Show) How Decide?
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What is the correct way to decide whether to accept the bankers offer?
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Is this correct?
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It's unclear what the banker's behavior is, or whithat the actual value...
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Forum: Probability
11-11-2007, 10:35 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 221
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Forum: Probability
11-11-2007, 10:20 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 254
Re: Geometric Series
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I realize geometric series isn't exactly probability, but attracts the mathematically-inclined posters, so here goes. I also posted in the SMP forum.
I need to show that:
2*sum[ ((...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-10-2007, 11:54 PM
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Replies: 15
Views: 286
Re: Proof of Fundamental Theorem of Poker?
"Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have...
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Forum: Probability
11-08-2007, 02:01 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 337
Re: Plane crash
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Im sorry, Im confused. Suppose the risk of any plane crashing is 1/5. You know that Joe will take 7 flights next year. What is the probability that Joe will die next year?
[/ QUOTE...
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Forum: Probability
11-08-2007, 01:55 PM
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Replies: 3
Views: 266
Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?
The chance that your opponent (heads up) has AA when you already have KK is 6 in 1225 -- roughly 1 in 204. If you're playing ring games you can reasonably approximate the likelihood that any of...
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Forum: Probability
11-06-2007, 05:33 PM
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Replies: 13
Views: 226
Re: BB/100 variations question !
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Hrm, for some reason I thought I read he was playing limit holdem. If it's NLHE then yeah, more hands are definitely needed.
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If I recall correctly, the variance for limit...
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Forum: Probability
11-03-2007, 12:33 AM
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Replies: 23
Views: 548
Re: A tough variance problem (at least for me)
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Ah well. I told you all I was over my head here, and the easiest way to gain understanding is through massive bouts of stupidity, right?
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I'm not sure if it's the easiest,...
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Forum: Poker Theory
11-01-2007, 02:11 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 375
Re: inverted blinds, why not?
The BB and the SB are clearly the furthest players from the dealer and already at the biggest disadvantage. I suppose you could play with a SB-only arrangement of some kind, with dead-money blinds,...
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Forum: Probability
11-01-2007, 02:04 PM
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Replies: 23
Views: 548
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Forum: Probability
10-31-2007, 10:43 AM
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Replies: 27
Views: 443
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