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Posts Made By:
Ganchrow
Forum:
Sports Betting
10-05-2007, 01:51 PM
Replies:
41
Teasing NFL With NCAAF
Views:
216
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: Teasing NFL With NCAAF
[ QUOTE ]
OK, this is the only part which confuses me - the hedging.
To take a real world example, the Seahwaks/Steelers -6 (not an NCAA game but still appplicable) has a moneyline on Pinnacle of...
Forum:
Sports Betting
10-05-2007, 01:38 PM
Replies:
41
Teasing NFL With NCAAF
Views:
216
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: Teasing NFL With NCAAF
[ QUOTE ]
Many books now offer payouts of -110, +180, +300. So what if we change that one assumption? (your +400 is clearly a typo)
[/ QUOTE ]Yes, thank you, +300 is correct.
[ QUOTE ]
The...
Forum:
Sports Betting
10-05-2007, 07:07 AM
Replies:
41
Teasing NFL With NCAAF
Views:
216
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: Teasing NFL With NCAAF
Frequently, a good way to get an idea of the marginal value of the availability of 1 or more bet candidates is to consider the change in Kelly utility from including in the universe of allowable...
Forum:
Sports Betting
10-04-2007, 06:14 PM
Replies:
16
Kelly Betting Question
Views:
300
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: Kelly Betting Question
[ QUOTE ]
Tom,
Isn't -156/+156 the market value?
[/ QUOTE ]No.
Taking the "true" market to be -161/+151 (a not completely unreasonable assumption given SIA's habit of shading lines) the...
Forum:
Sports Betting
08-17-2007, 12:54 PM
Replies:
8
Kelly Criterion Calculator in excel?
Views:
71
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: Kelly Criterion Calculator in excel?
[ QUOTE ]
Ganchrow, I wrote that, and yes, yours is much better, seeing as how I rarely make just one bet. /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Oh, and if you read this, consider adding an option to put in...
Forum:
Sports Betting
08-17-2007, 11:00 AM
Replies:
8
Kelly Criterion Calculator in excel?
Views:
71
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: Kelly Criterion Calculator in excel?
[ QUOTE ]
http://www.smartcapper.com/tool_kelly_criterion_calculator.html
[/ QUOTE ]A much better Kelly calculator is the one I wrote here:...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-23-2007, 03:07 PM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I made a wording mistake, make it:
[ QUOTE ]
I do not think this is optimal result from sportsbetting perspective.
[/ QUOTE ]
I think what you really mean to say is...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-23-2007, 10:15 AM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and think a 5% edge at +100 is the same thing as a 5% edge at +250.
[/ QUOTE ]
This is true crockpot. You seem to be experienced, why do u size your bets...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-23-2007, 07:44 AM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
So anyway, here's a quick and dirty back-of-the-envelope type proof of the proposition I made above. (Specifically, In the face of a positive EV multi-way wager set spanning every possible outcome of...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-23-2007, 04:52 AM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
[ QUOTE ]
Max EV is obviously betting full BR on +150.
If you only restrict your options to the area where you do not risk any loss, fine. But I do not think it is optimal so I would like to know...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-23-2007, 04:45 AM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you knew with 100% certainty that you'd later be able to hedge your position at +100, then assuming zero opportunity cost, the Kelly stake would be 50% of...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-21-2007, 05:18 AM
Replies:
11
O/U calcs
Views:
100
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: O/U calcs
[ QUOTE ]
Say the Total on a game is 10 runs.
A) I have the real line at 8 runs.
B) I have the real line at 12 runs.
Am I right in saying that:
A) Edge% = 2 / ( 8 + 2) = 20%
b) Edge% =...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-21-2007, 03:36 AM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you should bet less on riskier events, even with the same edge? I guess this would be to reduce variance/risk of ruin?
[/ QUOTE ]
That's correct. Here's a link about...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-21-2007, 03:32 AM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
[ QUOTE ]
someone offers you +150 on the flip of a fair coin. you know that you will have the opportunity to hedge the other side at +100 later. you would still risk the kelly recommended 25% on...
Forum:
Sports Betting
07-20-2007, 03:28 PM
Replies:
48
post on -EV hedging
Views:
194
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging
I'll invite all those interested in this topic to read my post as SBR Forum entitled Using Kelly to Determine Optimal Hedging Strategy...
Forum:
Sports Betting
05-24-2007, 08:12 PM
Replies:
62
The Well: King Yao
Views:
227
Posted By
Ganchrow
Re: The Well: King Yao
My Kelly calculator (http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Kelly+Calculator.aspx) handles multiple independent simultaneous wagers.
This post I made on Kelly...
Showing results 1 to 16 of 16
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