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Forum: Sports Betting 10-05-2007, 01:51 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 216
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: Teasing NFL With NCAAF

[ QUOTE ]
OK, this is the only part which confuses me - the hedging.

To take a real world example, the Seahwaks/Steelers -6 (not an NCAA game but still appplicable) has a moneyline on Pinnacle of...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-05-2007, 01:38 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 216
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: Teasing NFL With NCAAF

[ QUOTE ]
Many books now offer payouts of -110, +180, +300. So what if we change that one assumption? (your +400 is clearly a typo)

[/ QUOTE ]Yes, thank you, +300 is correct.

[ QUOTE ]
The...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-05-2007, 07:07 AM
Replies: 41
Views: 216
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: Teasing NFL With NCAAF

Frequently, a good way to get an idea of the marginal value of the availability of 1 or more bet candidates is to consider the change in Kelly utility from including in the universe of allowable...
Forum: Sports Betting 10-04-2007, 06:14 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 300
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: Kelly Betting Question

[ QUOTE ]
Tom,

Isn't -156/+156 the market value?

[/ QUOTE ]No.

Taking the "true" market to be -161/+151 (a not completely unreasonable assumption given SIA's habit of shading lines) the...
Forum: Sports Betting 08-17-2007, 12:54 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 71
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: Kelly Criterion Calculator in excel?

[ QUOTE ]
Ganchrow, I wrote that, and yes, yours is much better, seeing as how I rarely make just one bet. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Oh, and if you read this, consider adding an option to put in...
Forum: Sports Betting 08-17-2007, 11:00 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 71
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: Kelly Criterion Calculator in excel?

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.smartcapper.com/tool_kelly_criterion_calculator.html

[/ QUOTE ]A much better Kelly calculator is the one I wrote here:...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-23-2007, 03:07 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I made a wording mistake, make it:
[ QUOTE ]

I do not think this is optimal result from sportsbetting perspective.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think what you really mean to say is...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-23-2007, 10:15 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and think a 5% edge at +100 is the same thing as a 5% edge at +250.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true crockpot. You seem to be experienced, why do u size your bets...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-23-2007, 07:44 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

So anyway, here's a quick and dirty back-of-the-envelope type proof of the proposition I made above. (Specifically, In the face of a positive EV multi-way wager set spanning every possible outcome of...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-23-2007, 04:52 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

[ QUOTE ]
Max EV is obviously betting full BR on +150.
If you only restrict your options to the area where you do not risk any loss, fine. But I do not think it is optimal so I would like to know...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-23-2007, 04:45 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you knew with 100% certainty that you'd later be able to hedge your position at +100, then assuming zero opportunity cost, the Kelly stake would be 50% of...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-21-2007, 05:18 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 100
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: O/U calcs

[ QUOTE ]
Say the Total on a game is 10 runs.

A) I have the real line at 8 runs.
B) I have the real line at 12 runs.

Am I right in saying that:

A) Edge% = 2 / ( 8 + 2) = 20%
b) Edge% =...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-21-2007, 03:36 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So you should bet less on riskier events, even with the same edge? I guess this would be to reduce variance/risk of ruin?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's correct. Here's a link about...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-21-2007, 03:32 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

[ QUOTE ]
someone offers you +150 on the flip of a fair coin. you know that you will have the opportunity to hedge the other side at +100 later. you would still risk the kelly recommended 25% on...
Forum: Sports Betting 07-20-2007, 03:28 PM
Replies: 48
Views: 194
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: post on -EV hedging

I'll invite all those interested in this topic to read my post as SBR Forum entitled Using Kelly to Determine Optimal Hedging Strategy...
Forum: Sports Betting 05-24-2007, 08:12 PM
Replies: 62
Views: 227
Posted By Ganchrow
Re: The Well: King Yao

My Kelly calculator (http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Kelly+Calculator.aspx) handles multiple independent simultaneous wagers.

This post I made on Kelly...
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