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-   -   $22, TT Bubble (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=555218)

jfly 11-26-2007 11:16 PM

$22, TT Bubble
 
Button is very loose and almost never raised preflop (stats something like 41/6). I had seen a limp/reraise earlier from him but the hand wasnt shown down. Sharkscope says he's -19% ROI and down $3k thru almost 1000 games. The table was very passive, almost no steal attempts. I played tight early and had been raising a lot of hands lately

What's the best choice here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t2585)
UTG (t3425)
Button (t5785)
SB (t1705)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t150, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1050</font>, Hero ...

TruFloridaGator 11-26-2007 11:18 PM

Re: $22, TT Bubble
 
Super donkish line by a player like this. Range is pretty wide. I'm shoving.

JulioYalil 11-27-2007 12:31 AM

Re: $22, TT Bubble
 
the problem here is the amount u raised. u made it $600 which left u w/ $1985. if the button makes the call there will be $1275 in the pot.

i'm assumin u gonna bet the flop regardless of what comes. a c-bet is usually from half the pot to pot-sized. let's say u bet half the pot on the flop ($650) and the button then pushes. now the pot will be $3910 and u'll have $1335 left behind u. r u really gonna fold then? gettin 3:1 on ur money? knowin the history on the player and that if u fold u'll be left in last place? i know i wouldn't. and that's only if u bet half the pot on the flop. if u bet more then u'll be gettin way bigger odds and pretty much have to call anyway.

my point is u should've raised a smaller amount preflop so u left urself some room to fold or just plain push and try takin down the $375 in the pot already.

as played u gotta think about it this way. he minraised u and is now givin u almost 4:1 to make the call. so u definitely shouldn't fold ur TT w/ those odds. but even better think about this. if u push and he calls u gave urself 2.4 to 1 (do the math urself). the important thing about those odds is the followin: if u put ur opponent's range at AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or AK u only need 2:1 to make the call w/ TT. u have better odds than 2:1 and ur prolly way better than one would think b/c as u describe this player his pushin range is prolly wider than these 5 hands.

so answer u lookin for is PUSH.

jurrasstoil 11-27-2007 01:12 AM

Re: $22, TT Bubble
 
He is either luring you in with a monster or he is just a random donk thinkin his A/rag, QJ or low pair is the nuts 4handed.
I get it in after this action. No way i'm folding here.

DMACM 11-27-2007 01:24 AM

Re: $22, TT Bubble
 
id like a smaller or no raise preflop to avoid just this sort of disastor. as playd your pot odds are so good i find it hard not calling preflop. even if u have an overpair tho on the flop u probably should strongly consider folding depending on how he bets and the texture of the board.

DMACM 11-27-2007 01:33 AM

Re: $22, TT Bubble
 
i honestly think a push here is really bad. i have been seeing a lot of bad advice on here. the blind leading the blind. then again what incentive does a good player have to teach bad players how to beat him?

the reason i think a push is bad is because of ICM. ICM isnt just a concept for determing whether a push or fold in all in situations but a mathematical model based on the payouts. Its simple. fourth is horrible. third is relatively speaking pretty huge.

calling or folding leaves him in a really good position whereas shoving with 0fe( i.e. this is like a call unless a bluff is significant in his range. it isnt hes 7pfr) theres an extremely good chance hes 50 50 or worse.

jfly 11-27-2007 02:30 AM

Re: $22, TT Bubble
 
You really think checking is ok when I know for sure he's limping with at least 30% of his hands? For future hands I don't want him thinking he can just limp the button any time he wants. At first I thought to just shove preflop but it didn't seem right with 16BB's. In the end I called the preflop re-raise which seemed like a bad play to me. The limp/reraise really didn't seem strong to me...just a donkish play. I guess I ended up calling because I knew he would call a push and I didn't really want to be flipping in this spot.

DMACM 11-27-2007 02:48 AM

Re: $22, TT Bubble
 
as i stated i thought your inital raise put you in a difficult position. worst case scenario is a shove but this was almost as bad as u are calling, then check folding, or (foolishly IMO) 3 betting all in pre. I think calling or min betting are better.

as played after your initial raise i think your insticts were correct and that pushing is incorrect for the reasons i stated above.


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