middle pair + OESD - flop shove?
 

Hi all.
Villain is 40/16/1
Should we shove here?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $24.65
BTN: $14.90
Hero (SB): $26.55
BB: $33.95
UTG: $11.20
MP: $17.15

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $0.75</font>, CO calls $0.75, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($3) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $1.75</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $5.50</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $25.80 and is All-In</font>, MP calls $10.90 and is All-In

Re: middle pair + OESD - flop shove?
 

Mh with 40/16/1 villain is a bit on the loose/passive side (only slighty tough), so I dont think you have too much FE, I dont like the shove here too much, esp. since you could be drawing dead already.

Re: middle pair + OESD - flop shove?
 

Drawing dead?
10-8 and 8-5 would leave him drawing to a chop but neither hand is likely given heroes holding and pf action.

I don't like the shove either. What better hand folds? Maybe T9/98/A9 but does this villain raise that on the flop? Sure sometimes but not often enough IMO.

Villain pf numbers make 97, 76 and the sets all plausible. His af makes me think that he doesn't make this flop raise very often without a big hand (2pair or better). I think I call and fold to a big turn bet on a blank (if turn checks through then I bet/call the river)

Re: middle pair + OESD - flop shove?
 

I don't like the shove, so much.

The only hands calling you are the ones that have you in trouble. Your throwing out $25 to win $10.

Based on the villain's stats, a big raise like that, would indicate to me, a strong hand, that doesnt like the straight draw. 66,77,99-QQ, A9, 67

Calling here is also tricky, I don't think you'd be getting great implied odds, if the 5 or 10 falls, the hand might be over for villain. You could call, to gauge his reaction on the turn, but folding here, seems just as wise to me.