NL200: KQs, push draw on flop?
 

Villian is 10.9/6.5/0.25 but only over 27 hands.
Normally I think this is a good place for a push as a lot a pairs could be check raising me, but this guys AF is so low.
Because it's such a small sample do we just ignore it and push anyway?

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $209.90
2Cards2Come (SB): $293.40
netix (BB): $207.05
C.Carrasso (UTG): $83
leebur (UTG+1): $140.80
jojo2914 (MP): $255.60
Co8888 (CO): $205.45

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
C.Carrasso folds, leebur calls $2, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10</font>, 2 folds, leebur calls $8

Flop: ($23) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
leebur checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $18</font>, <font color="red">leebur raises to $44</font>
Hero?

Re: NL200: KQs, push draw on flop?
 

Normally I like the B3B AI line here, but the villain's line and stats are screaming set or 2pair and your line is screaming overpair if you shove. Villain may have a hand like 6c7c, but does the chance of this warrant a 3bet shove? The sample size is very small, but villain's leaning heavily toward the tight weak side and so his range is leaning towards the sets and 2pair. You have great implied odds here because you're repping an overpair and will get action if a club falls (he'll prob think you are semi-bluffing with a hand like AcAx KcKx or QcQx). I think it's close between calling and folding, but I would probably lean towards calling, since your implied odds are good. I shove here against most villains all day though.

Re: NL200: KQs, push draw on flop?
 

Didnt notice stack sizes....calling is bad.

Re: NL200: KQs, push draw on flop?
 

Fold or shove