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-   -   Flush on Paired Board...how much to bet on river? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=548564)

NYTyler 11-17-2007 08:50 PM

Flush on Paired Board...how much to bet on river?
 
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($3.81)
SB ($2.20)
BB ($3.85)
UTG ($1.32)
Hero ($4.74)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $0.02, Button calls $0.02, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.07) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.04</font>, Hero calls $0.04, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $0.14</font>, BB calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10.

Turn: ($0.49) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $0.2</font>, BB folds, Hero calls $0.20.

River: ($0.89) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero?

I am fairly certain I have the best hand and I realize that my call on the turn wasn't completely justified in a strict pot-odds sense. But I figured with implied odds here I can make it worth my while if I hit. What's a good amount to compensate, and how much can I realistically get here to a hand like AK-AJ, AK or A5?

Spurious 11-17-2007 09:43 PM

Re: Flush on Paired Board...how much to bet on river?
 
3:1 pot odds on the turn, if you win .2$ more you are breakeven. i'd bet .60$ on the river.

you might check-min-raise here. but it really depends on reads, is he going to bet again?
if you are certain he'll bet again, i'd go with a check-raise and probably make a minraise, he wont call much more.

udbrky 11-18-2007 03:53 AM

Re: Flush on Paired Board...how much to bet on river?
 
Turn call isn't bad - from a pure pot odds perspective, you're not making a big mistake by calling (3.5:1 when you're 4.2:1 to hit). Throw in likely implied odds, and you're making money.

I wouldn't worry too much about the paired board. If it were something like AATKJ, I'd worry more, especially if the opponent was passive.

Your line on the river depends on your opponent. If they're a calling station, don't check. Checking won't induce a bluff.

Bet out against most opponents. Otherwise, you'll be disappointed at how often your opponent checks behind. If they like to bluff a lot, then check, otherwise, by default, bet.


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