when to take - moneline?
 

i have been reading this forum a lot lately trying to learn, and one thing i almost never seen is anyone taking a negative money line unless they are arbing, what kinds of situations if ever is this right other than in an arb?

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

Anytime its +EV? Or in a hedge.

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anytime its +EV? Or in a hedge.

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yeah, well i know when it is +ev, but it seems pretty rare that people take negative money lines, maybe its just that i havent noticed it but iirc i've seen far more + money lines than - posted

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

i like -moneylines in baseball, but only for small favorites

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

Most favorites are overvalued.

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

lay the points if you like a fav

bet the moneyline if you like the dog

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Most favorites are overvalued.

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No.

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anytime its +EV

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End of discussion.

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Anytime its +EV

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End of discussion.

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but this is sort of circular logic, my question is really why does it seem a lot less common for people to take negative money lines, or am i imagining things

Re: when to take - moneline?
 

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Most favorites are overvalued.

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No.

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I'm interested in your thoughts on this. I've heard conflicting economic arguments on why they're overrated and why they're not. And judging from my random (small) sample. The no-vig line isn't accurate as a true line for large MLs.

Side note: If anyone wants to help make a scraper to pull lines in a variety of sports for research. I'd be excited.