Who is betting against Hillary?
 

Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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I'd say Hillary is > 1/4 to win.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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www.intrade.com

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Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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I'd say Hillary is > 1/4 to win.

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Easily.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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If I'm remembering my Freakonomics correctly, they stated that Female and Black candidates tended to poll 3-4% higher than they actually received at election. Even considering this she'll probably win.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

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I'm short Hillary on intrade. She is not a coin flip to be president.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anyone got any action on the presidential race? I bet my friend $1000 giving 3 to 1 odds that Hillary will not be the next president of the US. +EV / -EV ? Thoughts?

-TheActionKid

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm remembering my Freakonomics correctly, they stated that Female and Black candidates tended to poll 3-4% higher than they actually received at election. Even considering this she'll probably win.

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The nomination or the general? Because she's not as close to getting the nomination as she looks. Her Iowa numbers are Twinkie soft and the media appears to be turning on her.

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

I think your bet is +EV. What would be even more +EV would be if you bet me $1000 giving me 2.5:1. Are you interested? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Who is betting against Hillary?
 

If you seriously want 2.5 to 1 on $1000 bet that Hillary is the next president PM me please.

-TheActionKid