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-   -   $16 - QJ late (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=543022)

mattiesmat 11-10-2007 04:47 PM

$16 - QJ late
 
How is this?
I raised to be able to fold if SB pushed.
Raising with QJ not too loose here?
What's your raising range?
Have to call BB's push right?
SB is 27/5 and BB is 13/9 so far.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) by Hand Converter CG

SB (t3010)
BB (t1095)
UTG (t3390)
MP (t2540)
Hero (t3465)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t1095</font>, Hero calls t695.

vers 11-10-2007 04:50 PM

Re: $16 - QJ late
 
bottom of my range for opening but I think it's good. Have to call BB.

eurythmech 11-10-2007 04:51 PM

Re: $16 - QJ late
 
Looks standard.
SB isn't going to be restealing, so nothing to worry about there.

sean457j 11-10-2007 04:56 PM

Re: $16 - QJ late
 
You are getting 2:1 on your money, although I would say losing this means that there will be five stacks roughly the same size. If you call and win I don't think you increase your advantage enough to make it worth taking the risk. By mucking you do not really hurt your stack or increase the BB's by that much. For those reasons I would probably muck.

taipan168 11-10-2007 06:45 PM

Re: $16 - QJ late
 
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 2:1 on your money, although I would say losing this means that there will be five stacks roughly the same size. If you call and win I don't think you increase your advantage enough to make it worth taking the risk. By mucking you do not really hurt your stack or increase the BB's by that much. For those reasons I would probably muck.

[/ QUOTE ]
Getting 2.25 to 1 on the call I don't think you can fold here. To prove it, I ran the ICM:

- If you fold you will have 3065 chips worth 22.3% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 4635 chips worth 30.4%
- If you call and lose you will have 2370 chips worth 18.2% of the prize pool

Therefore, you need to be 33.6% to win against BB's shoving range to make this a good shove.

Considering that Hero raised from the button, BB will shove back with a pretty wide range. Let's say the tightest he will shove back with is 44+, A7+, KJ+ (which is pretty tight IMO), against this range QJo is 36% to win so we still have to call. I think that BB will shove back with a much wider range than that to a button raise, even with limited FE - because he will think that he is ahead of your range.

Scotty_12 11-10-2007 07:50 PM

Re: $16 - QJ late
 
Mucking hurts your image bad here ... if image matters much in 16s and you'll ever see those players again can be debated.

As played it would be the standard line for me i think


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