fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $49.93
MP: $51.77
CO: $20.40
Hero (BTN): $48.87
SB: $62.18
BB: $39.32

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($5.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $4</font>, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($13.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $7</font>, Hero calls $7

River: ($27.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero ???

So my draw is busto - but I get the feeling that meow chow TAG villain here just tried to float me...

Is a river bet standard for around 1/2-2/3 pot here?

Is a better line to raise suspected turn floats - or does that tend to get calls more often than calling turn betting river?

I suspect mcTAG holds Axdd, Axs with just a gs draw or a small pair, 67/54s a smallish pp - what hands call my river bet (apart from sets obv) ?

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

This is a little tough without reads.

His limp/call line UTG looks a little sketchy to me - do you know if he raises pocket pairs from any position?

Let's look at his line:

limp/call preflop
lead turn
check river

preflop:
I think his range here is something like any pocket pair, Axs, and suited connectors up to maybe JTs-65s. Big pockets are out of the question, as well as hands like AJ-AK. KQ/QJ are possibly as well, but very player dependent.

Flop:
I think most tags will bet with a jack here. There are a lot of overcards that can catch up as well as flush/straight draws.
I think his range is now something like 44-TT, KdQd, Td9d,8d7d,6d5d, Ad(4,5,6,7,8)d, probably not Ad3d(he'd lead flop)

Turn:
Villain bets the turn. This really doesn't narrow his range down much though, because he could be floating, he could have hit pair+fd, possibly bluffing on a naked flush draw but unlikely because noone really does c/c flop lead turn with a naked FD.

River:
Villain checks. WTF. Any reads on if he likes to play trappy on the river? At these stakes I find most people with the goods just bet here rather than go for a c/r.

So at this point, I think his range is:
66-88, busted FD, maybe a small pair+FD (Ad5d)

Looking at it this way a large bet might not be so bad ($15 should do it)

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

matrix, your post sounds a bit FPSsy - how many 'mcTAG's take this line as a OOP float?

turn looks to me like a blocker/thin vb with weak pairs and good draws, and after he's called/misses he decides he can't vb.

i'm not sure about a river bet - don't we raise a lot of our good hands on the turn given board texture, and don't we check a lot of our weak jacks behind on the river? you'll usually get a fold from better diamond draws, but there aren't a lot of them.

also, what does a mcTAG limp UTG - looks like a PP. I guess he might take this line with 66-88. does 1/2 pot get them to fold?

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

bozzer - how many tags do you think check the jack on the flop?

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

[ QUOTE ]
bozzer - how many tags do you think check the jack on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

most. i would nearly always.

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

[ QUOTE ]
bozzer - how many tags do you think check the jack on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of them "check to the raiser". Just give up, I don't think he's folding ever. Another option would be to raise his weak turn bet. But you don't rep anything by flatting the turn and betting the river, I'd just go to showdown and see what he takes this line with.

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

I think I check here to the raiser about 90% of the time tbh. The board is not particularly drawy and I would want to get a c-bet from hero if I was villain. Actually, this is the line I would take with a jack very often but I wouldnt check this river unless I had a weaker jack, I would value bet it. So my honest guess if he is a TAG that his is like JT, QJ, or even KJ and is prepared to c/c a river bet.

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

i raise the turn here like almost always against tags. wut hand do they play in this nature that they can play a HUGE pot oop on the river... the answere is none. this line is [censored] over 80% of the time imo.

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

fold turn without a read.

Re: fd+1over gets floated on the turn.
 

What? We're almost getting direct odds. He bet 1/2 pot.