A2s flops a big draw, PL $50 6m
 

Villian in this hand is 72/24 over almost 300 hands, and bad in every way imaginable. I raised big on the flop hoping to pressure him into a push or fold, but of course he called because thats what fish do. Turn seems to be the perfect card to semibluff. He's bad but unless he has AK he's gotta hate that card. Do I have enough fe and outs to shove teh turn?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP: $77.40
Hero (CO): $51.50
BTN: $49.25
SB: $48
BB: $20
UTG: $55.25

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.10</font>, MP folds, Hero calls $1.10, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.95) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $5</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $17.95</font>, UTG calls $12.95

Turn: ($38.85) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $32.45 and is All-In</font>

Re: A2s flops a big draw, PL $50 6m
 

FD have 33% to win, u have 9 cards out.U put $32.45 to win $38.85. its -EV, will cost u alot in the long run.

Re: A2s flops a big draw, PL $50 6m
 

Except he has fold equity, is paying 32 to win 38 + 32 and is on the turn so is ~20% to make the flush.

To be honest, I think I'd take the free card here. You've got a read that the guy is a bit of a station, I'm cutting down on my semi-bluffs against a station.

Would be nice to know how often villain needs to fold here to make it neutral EV, I'd do the math but I'm meant to be studying for an exam tomorrow..

Re: A2s flops a big draw, PL $50 6m
 

When you reraised the flop you put in almost 40% of your stack and basically committed yourself. With a flush draw and an inside straight draw I have no problem pushing here.

edit: misread position

Re: A2s flops a big draw, PL $50 6m
 

You ace outs are good IMO and you have FE and hell, you might even be ahead once in a blue moon if called. I approve.