100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

Villain is ~24/3/1/50. I figured his range was narrow enough for this to be profitable, as I don't think he'll continue without QQ+, AK, or KQ. Since he's passive, I'm guessing he doesn't lead out with a big hand here, so I think I'm looking at AQ/JJ/TT here. Thoughts?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed)

CO ($34.65)
Button ($116.50)
SB ($107.40)
BB ($139.80)
UTG ($88.80)
UTG+1 ($57.80)
UTG+2 ($43)
MP1 ($437.85)
Hero ($107.35)
MP3 ($39.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $3.50, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Flop: ($8.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $4</font>, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($16.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $27</font>

Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

I don't like it. His range consists of premium hands and i don't think he will be able to fold it, no matter what hand you are trying to represent.

As a side note, I usually interpret half pot bets as a player looking for value. This type of player will let you draw cheaply.

Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

Let it go after he comes out betting

Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

can villian think? i feel with the 24 part in his stats he cant that much. i generally layout here when he dub-barrels being i dont think hes layyin out AA when we raise (tho he should).

like the idea, just dont think its the spot for it

Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

I think there's a very good chance he has what you're representing.

These guys don't bet the turn with AQ or JJ.

Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

Floating on flop is good, 2nd barrell is rarely a sign for weakness here. I'd let it go...

Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

if you're trying to make him fold aces, it's a good move lol. if you're bluffing this turn, you have to auto shove any river.

Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is ~24/3/1/50

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[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a very good chance he has what you're representing.

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Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

[ QUOTE ]
These guys don't bet the turn with AQ or JJ

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Re: 100NL: Float on Paired Board
 

[ QUOTE ]
can villian think?

[/ QUOTE ]

He appears to be a first-level thinker.

I fold the turn if he bets $10+, but doesn't a half-pot bet on both streets seem either really weak or really strong?

(And yes, if he calls the turn and checks to me on the river, I'm obviously insta-shoving.)