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-   -   OESD + 2 overcards vs 2 short stacks (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=532787)

castigar 10-27-2007 07:21 PM

OESD + 2 overcards vs 2 short stacks
 
Both vilain's stacks are short and they're both quite loose (40vip and 55vip)... Should I have folded the flop ?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $63.55
Hero (CO): $53.05
BTN: $20.10
SB: $15
BB: $50.50

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $3</font>, SB calls $2.75, BB folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($9.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $4</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $12 and is All-In</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $49.50</font>, BTN calls $13.10 and is All-In

takingcontrol 10-27-2007 07:35 PM

Re: OESD + 2 overcards vs 2 short stacks
 
the call seems kinda marginal to me as we're often dominated. hard to pass up like 6-1, so i call here. I think we have enough equity to call on the flop as well. any comments ?

Profish2285 10-27-2007 07:38 PM

Re: OESD + 2 overcards vs 2 short stacks
 
I just fold flop, you dont have odds to chase as Im sure you cant assume your overs are live.

crovax4444 10-27-2007 07:39 PM

Re: OESD + 2 overcards vs 2 short stacks
 
I like it. They could have a GS or some crap. Some of your outs may be dirty because they'll split, but I bet your overcards are fairly good. 8 straight outs (discount 2) and 6 overcard outs (discount to 4.5) and a BDFD (.5 outs) and we've got ~11 outs? That's enough to go AI any day

Crovax

oh well... 10-27-2007 08:27 PM

Re: OESD + 2 overcards vs 2 short stacks
 
[ QUOTE ]
I like it. They could have a GS or some crap. Some of your outs may be dirty because they'll split, but I bet your overcards are fairly good. 8 straight outs (discount 2) and 6 overcard outs (discount to 4.5) and a BDFD (.5 outs) and we've got ~11 outs? That's enough to go AI any day

Crovax

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought at first that this was a clear fold. However, this seems like some pretty good analysis for a call being EV.

Profish2285 10-27-2007 08:32 PM

Re: OESD + 2 overcards vs 2 short stacks
 
I think 4.5 for overs is generous here against two others. Maybe more like 3, probably less. The flop action indicates one of them has better than one pair at least. If youre looking at the flopped straight youre down to 7 outs. If youre against a set, its eight, but dont forget to factor in when he redraws to a full. If its an overpair which is definitely possible, then its 8 outs as well. Im sure 78 is very unlikely due to pf action, but the overpairs and sets are likely imo.


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