FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

I found this to be a somewhat odd spot. The villian was neither super tight nor Laggish. I won't say anything else about him because I want to see what people think of this spot in general.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t4000 (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB (t21200)
BB (t58472)
UTG (t82770)
Hero (t164494)
CO (t68272)
Button (t144792)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises to t10000, CO raises to t16000, 3 folds, Hero calls t6000.

Flop: (t33600) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/spade.gif, Jhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif (2 players)</font>

CO bets bets 51872 and is all-in

Hero???

Final Pot: t33600

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

Its annoying but i think its a pretty easy fold without a good read of villain making this sort of play in the past with air.

But really, you are way behind all of villains range, which is AJ+ 99+. Easy fold.

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its annoying but i think its a pretty easy fold without a good read of villain making this sort of play in the past with air.

But really, you are way behind all of villains range, which is AJ+ 99+. Easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You entertain no thoughts whatsoever of "win = HUGE / lose = still ok"???

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

Im all about taking the slight worst of it in this situation but against villains range (run the numbers, its bad) you are not a slight dog you are just a dog. why risk the chiplead when you are so far behind his range, its just wreckless IMO.

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

I assume Hero checked the flop?

Pot is offering you 85,500:52,000 or about 1.6:1

OESD gives you 8 outs. Maybe give yourself another out on the chance he's got QQ and you hit a K? So with 9 outs twice, we're a 38:9 + 37:9 underdog to hit our hand, or just about 2:1.

So the odds aren't there, but with some kind of read (likes to shove draws, but traps with big hands?) I might find a reason to call a bet that doesn't look like it wants to be called for a shot at almost 40Ms. But it would take convincing; you're not going to love your 16Ms if you whiff.

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

tell me one hand villain might have that hero has minimum 50% equity against...i dare you.

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

[ QUOTE ]
tell me one hand villain might have that hero has minimum 50% equity against...i dare you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't need 50% equity to call - 88,99,AJ,KQ,

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

We have to fold here, I mean first, you can take JJ and TT out of villain's range because he's not playing that [censored] like this. However, AK and AQ have us like 3:1, which honestly this looks quite a bit like, or AA or KK that saw the drawy board and got spooked. Anyway, you can fold now, we're in bad trouble a lot here, and only flipping in a couple best case scenarios.

Also, I'd argue that all of the hands we do decent against are much less likely 3bet candidates than the hands that have us crushed. I mean, we really think he's 3 betting from the CO with KQ, AJ, even 88 or 99? That would be very rare, I mean it would be one thing if we raised the button and he's in the blinds, but this is much different. I think this is a very easy fold.

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

Yeah you just can't do anything but fold here. Personally I think he turns up with KK/AA a LOT of the time here.

Re: FT facing a significant overbet as the CL
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he turns up with KK/AA a LOT of the time here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.


BTW, I posted this less as "Am I ahead / behind" and more as a "do you take a shot at getting 1/2 the chips in play"

Against QQ+ calling is about a 10k -EV mistake
KK+ is a ~16k mistake.

A wider range that might include a little AJ or AQ and 99/88 hands and you are very close to ~0 EV spot. A little wider and you are +2k to call a little narrower and you are -5k to call.....but who cares about ranges and EVs..thats very straight forward.