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-   -   Final table bubble of MTT with JJ, please help with ICM tourney equity (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=523904)

Loxodonta 10-16-2007 12:32 AM

Final table bubble of MTT with JJ, please help with ICM tourney equity
 
7 handed, top 6 get paid:

1st $342
2nd $225
3rd $144
4th $90
5th $54
6th $45

Seat 1: ITS-ALL-ME-JR (3,120)
Seat 2: kruttroyk (12,306)
Seat 4: strangor (6,610)
Seat 5: Doyle47 (12,917)
Seat 6: Loxodonta (11,300)
Seat 7: Nilli Vanilli (11,880)
Seat 8: shawndelc (9,367)
Loxodonta posts the small blind of 200
Nilli Vanilli posts the big blind of 400

It folds around to Doyle47 on the button who puts in a standard raise to 1,200. I have JJ in the small blind and I make a weak/passive play of flat calling, trying not to tangle with the other big stacks without a substantial edge. My idea is to check-raise a safe flop to win a medium pot. Meanwhile, Nilli Vanilli, who is known to be LAG, moves all in and Doyle47 folds. I know the algorithm for calculating my ICM tournament equity, but with 7 players remaining that is 7 factorial or 5,040 possible outcomes. I downloaded SNG Wizard and when it replayed this hand it suggested pushing my JJ (as opposed to folding I guess), which probably would have picked up the chips on the table and saved me this tricky decision, but I could not figure out how to get it to tell me my tournament equities of folding vs. winning this giant pot. Against {A8+, 88-QQ} (I expect a standard reraise with KK+) JJ has 65% pre-flop chip equity so if not on the bubble I would insta-call with fist-pump. Any advice on tools/methodology? Assume I'm a 2-1 favorite here, could/should I fold anyway? I recall Harrington mentioning something about folding QQ on the bubbble of a 1 table SnG, but that has a bigger payout difference between 3rd and 4th.

malnek 10-16-2007 12:51 AM

Re: Final table bubble of MTT with JJ, please help with ICM tourney eq
 
shove pre...you have tons of fe and no one is short enough where you should be folding

Sober 10-16-2007 01:30 AM

Re: Final table bubble of MTT with JJ, please help with ICM tourney eq
 
Shove pre, call with your read. A LAG player is sandwiching with a huge range, particularly with hands you crush (mainly lower pairs).


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