[10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?
 

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Villain is 29/24/1/67 over 65 hands, calls cbet 70% of the time. Comments on all streets please. How often does he call me with Kx on that flop?

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $9.56
Hero: $9.95
Button: $18.01
SB: $13.69
BB: $10.02

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($0.85, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $0.6</font>, BB calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.05, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2.05, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $1.02</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $1.02 returned to BB.

Results:
Final pot: $2.05

Re: [10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?
 

bad fold. chk behind on turn is ok, but only if your plan is to call any reasonable river bet. you chk turn behind to keep the pot small in a dangerous situation and you invite him to bluff river. it's a good way to get value from worse hands. think about his range. a player who plays so many hands agressively will bet into you with way more that just a K. think about how he perceives your play, you raise pf, cbet and then shut down, same thing you would have done w 33 or AQ etc. you've massively underrepresented your hand.

He calls your cbet w several draws, 8, 9, 89, or worse at least as often as with a K. him having a K is statistically unlikely once the turn paired it.

Re: [10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?
 

great response, thx

Re: [10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?
 

This is a horrible fold. You are getting 3 to 1, so you only have to win 25% of the time to break even on a call here. There are several reasons for villain betting the river:

1) value betting Kx
2) bluffing because you look weak
3) value betting 8x,9x,Tx because he thinks you cannot possibly have a king

In the first scenario you are beaten, but in the other two you are good. And scenario 2) and 3) definitely happen more often than 25% of the time.

So instacall.

Re: [10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?
 

[ QUOTE ]
bad fold. chk behind on turn is ok, but only if your plan is to call any reasonable river bet. you chk turn behind to keep the pot small in a dangerous situation and you invite him to bluff river. it's a good way to get value from worse hands. think about his range. a player who plays so many hands agressively will bet into you with way more that just a K. think about how he perceives your play, you raise pf, cbet and then shut down, same thing you would have done w 33 or AQ etc. you've massively underrepresented your hand.

He calls your cbet w several draws, 8, 9, 89, or worse at least as often as with a K. him having a K is statistically unlikely once the turn paired it.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you hit the nail on the head here.

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 3 to 1, so you only have to win 25% of the time to break even on a call here

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a great point. breaking a hand down the way these two posters do will improve your game to no-end.

Re: [10NL] - AA - good laydown on scary board?
 

Wow. I'm really surprised that you would fold AA for a half-pot bet of 10BB. Even if villan is extremely tight, AA is still worth a call. Checking the turn here is good if you want to quell action you might get from 3 kings, but you still have to be calling a bet on the river. Sometimes you're beat but I think you're ahead enough of the time to make this an easy call.

You'll lose a lot of value in your aces if you fold to small bets like this.