50NL AA facing CRAI
 

Long story short, i used to buy in for 40BBs but couldn't beat 100NL doing that after several attempts, so i've moved back to full stack poker at 50NL to practice again.

This is probably standard, but at the time i didn't know which way to go

Villain is a 20/9/1 over 350 hands or so. Don't have any notes, and didn't recognize him.
Hero runs at 15/8, but if he has previous data on me it will look more like 12/6

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($64.15)
Button ($22)
SB ($49)
BB ($21.75)
UTG ($121.60)
UTG+1 ($60.65)
MP1 ($13.15)
MP2 ($50.75)
MP3 ($56.10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, hero bets $5, UTG raises to $119.10 (all in) Hero?

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

Bleh, I think you are crushed by his likely range here.

You are getting ~1.27:1 to call, so you need at least 46% equity to call.

I would say villians likely range is 55,66,TT,78, and maybe throw in a hand like JJ that he thinks might be good here.

Against this range: JJ-TT,66-55,87s you have 46% equity.

However, if you remove JJ (which is probably an unlikely holding) you only have ~25% equity.

Considering he is relatively passive over your sample, this is usually a set here - I don't see passive villians doing this with AK postflop (I have seen it doen preflop).

I would probably fold AA here on this relatively dry board.

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

His stats are pretty unusual. LAGish Preflop and passive post flop.

Normally Id snap call but he really should be raising JJ,QQ,KK preflop with those stats. He even turned down a second chance to raise.
If you take those out of his range then I like a fold. Dont know if Id have the discipline to do it in the heat of battle.

The only thing that I would add is that if you have a habit of raising limpers from LP he may have picked up on this and decides to get tricky with you with KK,QQ.

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

Make a note of this play and this board &amp; action. Then fold.

He has a low post-flop aggression number indicating that he probably doesn't overplay straight draws and weak overpairs like JJ all that often.

If he ends up making a habit of this, you'll have to look him up eventually. Just don't look him up here. He looks like he's hit his set. He might be bluffing to represent a set, but if he is, then he's risking too much on the chance that (1) you have and overpair that you are disciplined enought to fold, or (2) you have AK/AQ.

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

I think I call it. It looks like a scared over pair or a draw to me. If it's a set make a note and move on.

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

I instacall. I might have played 6max too much but I really need to be deeper to fold AA here.

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

Why do I want to call this so bad?
Is it just the stupid allin?
I think I have to assume something is tilting me and say this is a standard fold

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I call it. It looks like a scared over pair or a draw to me. If it's a set make a note and move on.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sort of draw does this though? there's only really 78 that plays the hand this way.
You're right it does look like a draw, but there is only really one draw there
Also, with the overpair, it's a pretty funny way to play an overpair here as he has missed out on two chances to raise

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

Given the limp/call pf from EP, the massive CRAI on the flop, and the guy's stats, this is a set way too much for you to call. Passive post-flop players don't really make a habit of overplaying overpairs or a draw here.

Re: 50NL AA facing CRAI
 

Value shove? It would seem that any player would try to bet less to extract with their set since this isn't a very scary board.