step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I think this one is fairly interesting. The button is new to me but seems to be playing pretty ABC tag. He has stats of 24/16/2 or so for 400 hands. He has shown me a little game already when he sexied the turn against me in a pot where I had a pair and gutshot but folded the river UI. The BB is a reasonable 38/20/1.5 type but not particularly relevant.

We are 5 handed and I raise Ah5h UTG. Villian coldcalls from the button and BB calls. I have never seen him coldcall before but have only played a few orbits with him.

Flop: KsKd3s

I bet, villian raises, BB folds, I 3 bet, villian calls

Turn: 2c

I bet, villian calls.

River: 9c

What to do now?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

flop actually isnt bad because he can probably fold the mid pp he cold called with pf if another spade comes figuring he beats exactly nothing so you have like 12 "outs." that's kind of assuming alot about him, but i dont think the assumption is unreasonable given your read. c/f river.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I give up on the flop because he has a pocket pair but I think now that you've gotten this far you should c/r.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I think if you are going to get out of line a turn c/r is better, presuming of course that you would take that line with a legit hand.
I don't really like getting out of line here at all since you will need help from the board (Ace or spade) to get him to fold b/c he'll just shut down and put you on a FD if the turn + river blank off, which means 88->showdown.

He could also have KQ and have played it really poorly, or of course a flush draw which you probably beat but might get bluffed by on the river.

Surf

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I was thinking pocket pairs iniatially like all 3 reponders so far but then I thought a little more. Does he have 88 here Surf?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I think he has a 3 or the flushdraw. How could you ever make him fold a PP on the river?

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was thinking pocket pairs iniatially like all 3 reponders so far but then I thought a little more. Does he have 88 here Surf?

[/ QUOTE ]
I was thinking 77ish for him. It's conceivable he could be cold calling with JTss/QTss etc with those numbers as well. As far as combos go you are likely beat, and he doesn't seem like the type to bluff missed spades, so I'd c/f the river

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

I'd probably just call down his flop raise honestly, as played check/call > CR > check/fold > bet IMO.

-DeathDonkey

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd probably just call down his flop raise honestly, as played check/call > CR > check/fold > bet IMO.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting. Would you really just check call this to showdown ace high weak kicker?

As far as the river options I was thinking the exact opposite of you.

A few questions for the crowd.

1. Have I been successful in playing this exactly like I have a king?

2. Does the villian ever make a sophisticated river fold with a better hand?

3. What is the chance I get bluffed on the river if I check?

4. Although we are supposed to put him on a range, what are the most likely specific hands that villian holds.


I will tell you that before I posted the hand I had a long discussion with mikeL and he for the most part convinced me of a particular river action but I am still a little skeptical.

Re: step 1: get outta line. step 2: profit?
 

Oh man he told you to c/r didn't he? I'm pretty sure that is the best play. It will go something like this in his head "sweet he must have A high" then after you c/r "wow I got pozzed" as he clicks the fold button completely demoralized by how you maximized value with your K.