NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

reads - 200 hands, 22/5/1.8
me - 13/8/2.5 over 150 hands.

hows my line etc etc...cheerz guys.

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $131.50
UTG+1: $189.00
MP1: $64.30
MP2: $113.40
MP3: $127.35
Hero: $93.50
Button: $136.55
SB: $24.50
BB: $100.00

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, 3 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($9.5, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $16</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($41.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $15</font>, Hero calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($71.5, 2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero ???

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

Check behind on river obv.

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

Your first read is that your in a tiny NL game. The players sitting in a game like this typically call too much, they could be in there with anything. They are not very preceptive usually, TT is too weak a hand for the raise you made. I'd usually raise this hand more, maybe 6x against this caliber of competition. Occasionally call and check allong playing for a set.

He could have check raised you with overs like A-J thinking you were contiuation betting the pot trying to take it away from you, he could have 6 or a PP. All in all without any read from you on player quality, I see it random junk hand 20%, JT,QT or better upaired hand about 35% and smaller PP about 45%. I'm also worried about 45 here, not sure what risk to assign it. I'm not yet too concerned about a 6 in his hand. Turn brings a 4 and now he bets $15. I'm starting to zero in on two overs, following up with another bluff after the check raise to convince you your beaten (maybe 40%), I can only buy this if he respects your game very much. Second possibility that is getting stronger is the 4-5 preflop call or a 6 (about 60%). The turn gives all the small pp hands like 77,88,22,33 are now drawing to a straight. Hands like JJ also fit this betting pattern, I'm ruling out KK or AA here. The boards getting real bad and any 2,3,7,8 is going to cause me to fold to any significant bet on this hand.

On the river the K hits and he checks. You never reraised him, became a caller on the flop and turn, now the river hits and he checks. I'm certain now he has a small PP like 99,88,77,33,22 or JJ, or 45. If he's got a 6 in his hand and missed a bet on the river he's a total donk. You didn't show any indications your might make a river bet by your previous actions, why not bet and get a little more from you if he had the 6?

The case for 45 is if he had it, and he put you on AK, QK he would be worried the K counterfitted his 2 pair.

There is no chance he's playing 55 and is praying you have 6 in your hand expecting you to pot it on the end. He's should have small pp, JJ, 45 or overs here.

By in large I'd say he's weak and worried here but you don't have a hand strong enough to value bet on the end with the 66, straight possiblity and the K on the board. There is enough in the pot to check and see if your best. If you made a pot size bet here you'd be committed, smaller bets could be check raised all in and you'd have to fold. You must check.

Then again I've made a pretty stong case for the only hand he could have that I'm behind is JJ so I could value bet. I can't see him reraising with anything but a 6 or a king here. A rock couldn't reraise with the K even though your actions imply you don't have the 6.

Is it weak to want to get this hand shown down? That is what my feelings are here, I want to get it shown down. I might bet this on a more aggressive day. It's a tough hand really. If your villian had about 1/2 as many chips, I'd certainly put him all in or bet a substantial portion of his chips and be willing to call a reraise. Short stack players are often on a prayer.

What did he have?

Dave

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

check behind, although I think he has JJ/QQ here often enough

people with 1.8 dont 3bet these preflop or go crazy with 88s here 'usually'

if he did make a note move on

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

really nice analysis there GeeBeeQED. I checked behind and he showed 33.

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

played well if you check river

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
check behind, although I think he has JJ/QQ here often enough

people with 1.8 dont 3bet these preflop or go crazy with 88s here 'usually'

if he did make a note move on

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, I eliminated QQ as I would expect a preflop reraise with that hand most of the time.

Dave

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]

The case for 45 is if he had it, and he put you on AK, QK he would be worried the K counterfitted his 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

54 on a 6654 board... look again [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
really nice analysis there GeeBeeQED. I checked behind and he showed 33.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great! Thanks for the info. It's fun to get a chance to work out a problem like this without knowing the final answer. Lets you find what you know and what you don't know. To be fair there was a semi-wide range of hands in my final remarks. It seemed like a fairly blurry hand to work out.

Dave

Re: NL100 - overpair reraisydaisy\'d on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The case for 45 is if he had it, and he put you on AK, QK he would be worried the K counterfitted his 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

54 on a 6654 board... look again [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, I brought up the 5-4 as a minor concern on the flop, before the 4 hits on the turn. It give him a small 2 pair (6's over 5's) which fits his actions to the end of the flop action. It's also a likely calling hand preflop to a raise that small, our hero had plenty of chips relative to the raise giving the vilian hope of great implied odds with a classic trap hand. It remained in my possible hands thoughout. Many players would play the 5-4 about the same as PP33 here. The 33 is better because it's open ended after the turn but on the flop it's about the same value hand as the 2pair you have with 5-4. Am I missing something? I looked it over.

Depending on other factors I will from time to time put in a reraise (with PP) against a late poss preflop raiser when the flop comes all baby's. I think the villians play was reasonable here throughout. So many players will call a flop bet with overs to the board that it really is prudent to fire on the turn again when the next baby hits. Many of the goofs (remember I don't know if the villian knows the hero's game) will call the flop bet with overs, but won't do it with 1 card to come to a turn bet. I might only critisize the villians actions by saying the turn bet should have arguably been $30. This would have given our hero something to think about and the 10's would look very marginal against this size bet. Now the villian is gaining clearer info with his bet. This bet amount clearly asks the hero if he's willing to go all the way with his hand without risking the villians entire stack. The villian is betting $30 but the hero realizes with 1 street to go if he calls here he's probably got to go for it all. So the hero is really deciding if he want's to call all-in or not. That would be my read from the other side if you add it to my initial comments.

Dave