Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

Opp just sat down and is 20/2 w/no reads on him.

Are we calling here or shoving?
Here is the range I gave him and what I get

82 games 0.005 secs 16,400 games/sec

Board: Kd Ks Kc 8d 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.732% 70.73% 00.00% 8 0.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 29.268% 29.27% 00.00% 24 0.00 { AA, JJ-22, AKs, K9s+, 32s, AKo, K9o+ }

Please edit my stove hands if they need to be edited


Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $70.75
UTG: $36.15
MP: $40.80
Hero (CO): $50
BTN: $43.75
SB: $11.45

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.75</font>, 3 folds, MP calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, MP calls $3.50

Turn: ($13.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($13.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $11</font>, <font color="red">Hero?

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

feedback anyone?

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

I think you can remove AA and 32s from your range. I think I am just calling here, if I don't have any good reads. If you shove, you are probably only getting called by a K, or AA. And if he doesn't have a K, than your shove is saying I have it, barring him having reads on you.

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

I only call this. More than likely up against medium PP. But, just in case AK/KQ, I call.

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

Raise, but don't bother shoving. You get value out of so many worse hands with a small raise. 88-JJ, Any 8x and maybe even 7x or smaller pocket pairs. Raise the minimum or just a little bit more. something that makes him make a crying call.

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

this is not AA even 20/2 raises AA I think. I like the min raise as well he either has the other king or we take the pot.

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

not raising here is losing tons of value.

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is not AA even 20/2 raises AA I think. I like the min raise as well he either has the other king or we take the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you minraise and he has the King, he's pushing. Or, he may even push with a weaker pair and put you to a decision.

Are you going to call a raise? If not, why are we getting 1/2 our stack in?

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you going to call a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]
no - not calling the raise.

[ QUOTE ]
If not, why are we getting 1/2 our stack in?

[/ QUOTE ]
b/c we most likely have the best hand

Re: Interesting river spot: what to do?
 

[ QUOTE ]
no - not calling the raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Then don't we have to think about the possibility that he pushes?

I find that against unknowns, its difficult to judge if they're strong, bluffing or just THINK that they're stronger then they are. He will raise 100% of the time with Kx... he will raise/push some percentage of the time with other pocketpairs and he may even bluff a percentage of the time.

So my question... what do you guess the frequency of this guy pushing? (put him on a hand range and guess what frequency he's going to push)... by minraising, if he will reraise with a certain frequency (I don't know what frequency)... then aren't we better off going to showdown?

(I'm just thinking out loud here... and I was in this situation only I had AA and the board was KKKxy.... and I bet the river and allowed the guy to push putting me to a decision I wasn't thrilled to make.)