how many outs do i have?
 

btn is 30/19/2.6/35/484
sb is 34/1/0.6

here i wasn't sure what to do on the turn. if my ace outs are good, i have 7 outs and enough to call. but his hand might be a monster, so... how many outs do i have?

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, SB folds, Hero ...

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

I think he has a monster about never. Id give you at least 7, plus sometimes you chop, and I think KJs,ATs are a small part of his range and you win UI.

Editted to say that I think your ROI are really bad here.

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

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I think he has a monster about never.

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could you say why you think that? i'm not doubting you, it's just this line is so weird for a guy with solid tag stats that i have no idea what hand he would play like that and why. i basically never see such a line from a tag on this kind of flop.

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

this is AK a decent portion of the time. Lots of TAG-likes don't want to get c/r'd with AK in these spots so they check through the flop and then will try to bet the turn for a FSD. I wouls say he has a single pair about never, and this is either a huge hand (unlikely IMO since those stats indicate he's going to bet when he flops most of the time) or UI AK. I would give you somewhere around 5-6 outs, but since the SB folded I would rather see the J on the river than the A.

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

True, villain takes a strange line here. Normally a tag would continuebet the flop and if that is the norm from this guy we should be suspicious. This flop is not bad for a continuebet so why don't he do it? It would make sense with smaller pairs, draws or maybe even monsters. But wait, If he bets his set here his opponent will have odds to call and maybe he wants to reduce these odds by betting a "clean" turn. I think either way our villain misplays the flop unless he had a pair and a flushdraw(toppair then it is). If that is the case our A may be counterfeited and no even a J diamond can't help us so we are really in trouble here.

I think you can fold the hand here. It would just be to fishy to calldown and IF we should have played i would prefer donking the turn but I think even that is -ev in the long run in a multipot.

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
I think he has a monster about never.

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could you say why you think that? i'm not doubting you, it's just this line is so weird for a guy with solid tag stats that i have no idea what hand he would play like that and why. i basically never see such a line from a tag on this kind of flop.

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A guy with solid tag stats should know that checking a monster is retarded. He probably has some unpaired cards. Anyway, I gave you 6 outs for the times that you need to hit and 1 out for winning UI. Does this seem reasonable to everyone?

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

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A guy with solid tag stats should know that checking a monster is retarded. He probably has some unpaired cards.

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that's true, but shouldn't he also know that checking AK or other unpaired cards is retarded as well?

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

its not worth continuing here, I would just let it go

Re: how many outs do i have?
 

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A guy with solid tag stats should know that checking a monster is retarded. He probably has some unpaired cards.

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that's true, but shouldn't he also know that checking AK or other unpaired cards is retarded as well?

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actually checking the AK behind isn't that horrible since there is a good chance that hit someone's range and he's going to be c/r'd on the flop and have at like 3 outs or so. But for the most part a c-bet is better here, and good TAGs are pretty much always c-betting their AK, but all I can tell you from experience, is that this is AK a surprising amount of the time.

so I think folding is fine in this relatively small pot, but I think peeling isn't that bad either. and as I said before I tend to think a J is better for me than an A in this spot.