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-   -   Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board... (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=511363)

pofigistka 09-28-2007 03:10 PM

Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $106.38
BB: $100.00
UTG: $73.40
MP: $129.10
CO: $98.50
Hero (BTN): $165.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $1.00, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, SB folds, BB calls $3.50, MP calls $3.50

Flop: ($14) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, MP checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10.50</font>, BB calls $10.50, MP calls $10.50

Turn: ($45.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, MP checks

Pot Size: $45.50

BB is 20/14 taggish and MP is what we play party for a solid 44/4. I think he will call this turn with a bare flush draw. Who bets/checks here, and how much if so?

monsterdraws 09-28-2007 03:14 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
check and vb or call non-s river. if you bet and get called here, your river bet is going to be huge and not many will be putting in a whole stack with a weak tp if you fire turn.

sixhigh 09-28-2007 03:18 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
<font color="#FF4444">[*] </font> OP obviously isn't betting to push the river but to protect against spades and overs. If it was HU against the fish, I'd bet here again, but with another player in this hand I'd check behind and take a look at the river.

Orsman 09-28-2007 03:19 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
use your advantage to be in position and check behind. With two callers on this board I would not be so happy to bet with 88.

Hopscotch 09-28-2007 03:20 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
I bet turn about 30. No reason to just let both players draw when you are way ahead of most of their range.

sixhigh 09-28-2007 03:26 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
<font color="#FF4444">[*] </font>[ QUOTE ]
way ahead of most of their range

[/ QUOTE ]

Now this is the very best case scenario. Tbh, I guess OP will rarely ever be better than a flip against both ranges.

A still optimistic example:

Board: 3s 2s 7s 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.498% 34.47% 00.02% 246549 174.00 { 8d8h }
Hand 1: 23.041% 22.98% 00.06% 164337 450.00 { random }
Hand 2: 42.460% 42.42% 00.04% 303390 276.00 { 99, AcKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKc, AsKd, AsKh, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh }

pofigistka 09-28-2007 03:28 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
I actually bet 1/2 pot trying to induce a light c/r or get a call from a big spade. Is this too little or does it accomplish my aims?

sixhigh 09-28-2007 03:32 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
<font color="#FF4444">[*] </font> [ QUOTE ]
I actually bet 1/2 pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually that's gross. It gives anyone with a spade a call based on potodds alone and I doubt you are ahead of any c/r'ing range.

Hopscotch 09-28-2007 03:40 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
Hmmm. Yeah I agree 1/2 pot is really not so good.
I'm leaning toward betting more like 35 because I think BB will fold alot of Ax with a spade, especially if he isn't aware of MP's calling station tendencies.

Checking isn't horrible either here.

monsterdraws 09-28-2007 03:40 PM

Re: Weak overpait on turn on 3 flush board...
 
1/2 pot gives them 3-1 with no implied odds seeing as it will be like blood from a stone if spade hits, the main reason this is bad is because it opens him up to a checkraise.


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