NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

I can count the number of times I have folded a set on the flop on one hand. I know the flop is drawy, but I just couldn't see this guy 4betting the flop with anything other than a made hand or a monster draw. Is this fold OK?

Villain is 21/10/1.3 after 200 hands

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 10 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

BB: $105.55
Hero (UTG+2): $125.73


Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (10 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 6 folds, BB calls $2.00

Flop: ($6.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $10.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $30.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $50.00</font>, Hero folds

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

No way I fold here.

Give him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, and some monster draws like 65 of diamonds or A9 of diamonds.

Folding here is a mistake.

EDIT: I forgot to include 96s and 64s. Doesn't really change things because you can draw out on those and there is already a ton of money in the pot.

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

Ok, I pokerstoved it.

I gave him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, 96s, 64s, 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Against that range you have 37.7% equity.

Given you already have $33 invested, you have to shove.

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

AGREED, folding here is bad

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I pokerstoved it.

I gave him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, 96s, 64s, 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Against that range you have 37.7% equity.

Given you already have $33 invested, you have to shove.

[/ QUOTE ]


Homerun! :-)

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

Equity of hero after shoving should be 38% so even with the wide range of SABR this isn't an instashove. And I think this villain isn't playin A5d, A6d, 85d against and UTG-raiser, he isn't ultraloose. 6d9d I also doubt so that is making it more even. Second would a villain play 75s or 87s like this? Maybe because he thinks hero has an overpair, but other times he will suspect he is beat. I think shoving and folding are close. I lean towards folding.

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Equity of hero after shoving should be 38% so even with the wide range of SABR this isn't an instashove.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought I gave him a pretty tight range postflop.

[ QUOTE ]
And I think this villain isn't playin A5d, A6d, 85d against and UTG-raiser, he isn't ultraloose. 6d9d I also doubt so that is making it more even.

[/ QUOTE ]
He's calling 2 BB to see a flop with a suited connector or gapper. Notice I only gave him suited cards (for non-pairs). A player with his stats is calling those all day.

[ QUOTE ]
Second would a villain play 75s or 87s like this? Maybe because he thinks hero has an overpair, but other times he will suspect he is beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you called a raise with small suited cards and flopped two pair, why would you ever fold for 100BB?

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
No way I fold here.

Give him a range of 88, 77, 87s, 85s, 75s, and some monster draws like 65 of diamonds or A9 of diamonds.

Folding here is a mistake.

EDIT: I forgot to include 96s and 64s. Doesn't really change things because you can draw out on those and there is already a ton of money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, thanks for your thoughts.

I am not known for finding folds and I actually 5bet pushed the flop - and was shown 88. I have started to open raise 3bb from EP and I know that a result of this is that I need to factor in lighter calls, especially from BB. Looks like I wasn't too far out in my estimation of his range.

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

You can't fold here. You are simply getting too good a price, even if you are behind, which is admittedly often.

Re: NL100 - Bottom set fold
 

[ QUOTE ]
Equity of hero after shoving should be 38% so even with the wide range of SABR this isn't an instashove.

[/ QUOTE ]Math says otherwise. At 38% equity hero is winning on average $8.21 everytime he pushes given the amount of money in the pot.

I don't think he has A6dd/A5dd/65dd/T9dd because he's probably going to push those instead of minreraise them so that drops the equity a bit.

At 38% equity you'd have to be roughly $139 deep to fold this.