Overpair in the middle
 

Button is 21/14/3.3/81, SB is 46/14/1.8/121. FWIW I have a note on SB that he coldcalled PF, raised a K9x flop and folded to a Q turn donk.

How often is SB betting a worse hand after the strength me and button have shown?

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (12.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero???

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

this is tough, I think its probably a fold... only thing I could see button having u beat though is AQ or AKcc and sb likely doesnt bet 88 or 9x (or call 9x pre) into 2 players after the flop cap, and probably is never bluffing a missed draw AJ ect, who knows though? sb does seem to suck and 4 handed things can get crazy... calling cant be a huge mistake vs this sb, can it?

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

I don't really like your hand that much when a 14pfr dude 3bets your utg raise &amp; then raises you on this board after you cap pf; so I don't think I'd even 3bet the flop. Do you think this is a retarded free card play or maybe he got scared of trips w/ QQ?

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

board: 9c Tc 7h

..........equity
Hand 0: 24.673% { JhJs }
Hand 1: 75.327% { 99+ }

looks like the flop 3bet is too much vs a guy that tight


if we add the nfd it stays around the same
I would call hoping for the overlay of the SB not having a T and MP having a busted fd. I suspect he may check behind an overpair on that turn though

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

Button has a 3.3 AF. He probably fires any overpair on the turn, but it's not guaranteed. If he didn't fire again on a board that drawy, then he's an idiot and make a note.

He probably holds two big clubs or 88. He's not raising the river. If he's gotten cute w/ a T, then good for him.

Since I doubt you're getting raised, I think you can call. Given how loose sb is, I'd call at 12.5:1, probably 13.5:1.

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

Also, sb is pretty aggro. 1.8 is high for someone who's played 46% of his 121 hands.

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

[ QUOTE ]
board: 9c Tc 7h

..........equity
Hand 0: 24.673% { JhJs }
Hand 1: 75.327% { 99+ }

looks like the flop 3bet is too much vs a guy that tight


if we add the nfd it stays around the same
I would call hoping for the overlay of the SB not having a T and MP having a busted fd. I suspect he may check behind an overpair on that turn though

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we can add more hands, it's 4 handed so he's 3 betting my CO open, I think even 21/14 can do that with hands like AT. Still, it seems close even if his range is a bit wider, I contemplated calling down but the fact it's 3 way and I had a redraw pushed me towards 3 betting although it could be overplaying.

If we can't fold the river, how bad is raising?

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

what is the average players for button's stats? if that is average 4 players he is a huge nit

I think AT should be discounted somewhat because of the flop action. capping AT there vs a preflop capper is an overplay imo unless you have a very aggressive image

I don't think a raise is good. SB will often have a T here. a bluff seems unlikely given the action. hero's hand still looks like AA. I can't fold vs a moron in a pot this big though, so I call and hope he is overplaying.

we would also need villain to have checked behind a better overpair on the turn. that's a bad move imo and I don't think a lot of players will do it.

so I don't think the overlay is big enough to make a raise correct

Re: Overpair in the middle
 

Wasn't sure at the time, he was on 2 of my tables. In PT it shows 22/15/134 5.5 AP.

I meant he could have AT when he raises the flop the first time around, when he caps we know we're in bad shape.