NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

Villain is 13/8/2.3 (good stats!) @ 20 ptbb/100 over 400 hands. He is also a regular poster on this forum and knows who I am.


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $22.75
UTG+1: $61.05
MP1: $50.75
MP2: $52.10
MP3: $89.80
Fiasco: $52.45
Button: $30.20
SB: $68.95
BB: $50

Pre-flop: (9 players) Fiasco is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#cc0000">Fiasco raises to $3</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($12.5, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $6</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Fiasco raises to $18</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $65.95</font>, UTG folds, Fiasco?



Several things complicate this hand for me.

1) The shorty looks like he should be calling so its less likely that this is a low equity semi-bluff (say with just 67) on villain's part

2) Ive put in over 1/3 of my stack. So maybe I should be committed?

3) It seems like his range should be something like:
33, 44, 66, 5h6h, Ah6h, 6h7h, Ah5h, Ah7h, AhKh, AhQh

with the set hands being more likely as Id hope he wouldnt be calling too many pf raises with suited connectors or suited Aces OOP.

Im less than 10% against the sets and a little worse than even against the flush draws.

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

I think you are done regardless of how much money you put in. SB cold call pf then CR'ed all in against two players. and because UTG IS committed and you have shown reasonable strength as well we can say this pot is fairly protected meaning he should expect to get called alot of the time. i would say his range are the sets, twopairs, big combo draws which are favorites anyways... time to get out.

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

[ QUOTE ]

3) It seems like his range should be something like:
33, 44, 66, 5h6h, Ah6h, 6h7h, Ah5h, Ah7h, AhKh, AhQh


[/ QUOTE ]

He's not calling with 56 or 67 if he's good. He doesn't know UTG is going to call your raise. Those are not good HU hands against a preflop aggressor OOP.

I think you need to add TT(maybe)JJ,QQ to his range. I don't really think the small suited aces are good calls from the SB either when it looks like it is going to be HU. AK and AQ should repop it IMO,

I probably call this, and pray he has a smaller over pair. I think if you had less invested it would be a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.031 secs 670,645 games/sec

Board: 3h 6d 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.594% 53.02% 01.58% 11022 328.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 45.406% 43.83% 01.58% 9112 328.00 { QQ-JJ, 66, 44-33 }

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

3) It seems like his range should be something like:
33, 44, 66, 5h6h, Ah6h, 6h7h, Ah5h, Ah7h, AhKh, AhQh


[/ QUOTE ]

He's not calling with 56 or 67 if he's good. He doesn't know UTG is going to call your raise. Those are not good HU hands against a preflop aggressor OOP.

I think you need to add TT(maybe)JJ,QQ to his range. I don't really think the small suited aces are good calls from the SB either when it looks like it is going to be HU. AK and AQ should repop it IMO,

I probably call this, and pray he has a smaller over pair. I think if you had less invested it would be a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

20,790 games 0.031 secs 670,645 games/sec

Board: 3h 6d 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.594% 53.02% 01.58% 11022 328.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 45.406% 43.83% 01.58% 9112 328.00 { QQ-JJ, 66, 44-33 }

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont you think that QQ and JJ would have repopped it too? And if were putting those hands in his range shouldnt we include AA as well?

The more I think about it the more it seems like low pocket pairs are the kinds of hands he should have in this situation.

Im pretty sure that he isnt putting in the third bet with JJ for all of his chips on this flop. Remember, this is a good player and he knows who I am.

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you need to add TT(maybe)JJ,QQ to his range. I don't really think the small suited aces are good calls from the SB either when it looks like it is going to be HU. AK and AQ should repop it IMO,

[/ QUOTE ]

You say AK and AQ should repop but put 1010+ in his range? I think this is wrong as 1010+ would repop before AQs+. Villain might have a larger cold calling range knowing that hero is a thinking opponent that can be taken off hands.

Once the action goes the way it does, your honestly limited to sets, 65h, 67h, A5H, and the odd KK/AA mixed up for value. I'd probly give a good reg credit for having me here.

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

I don't think you can call but this would be a very good spot with a draw IMO. Even if UTG does call automatically, he is getting very good odds with the dead money you will be throwing into the pot when you fold.

If villain did have a draw, do you think it would ever be ok to just call or shove here, given that UTG can't reopen betting.

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are done regardless of how much money you put in. SB cold call pf then CR'ed all in against two players. and because UTG IS committed and you have shown reasonable strength as well we can say this pot is fairly protected meaning he should expect to get called alot of the time. i would say his range are the sets, twopairs, big combo draws which are favorites anyways... time to get out.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

I think folding is best.

If he routinely plays weak hands OOP for this kind of huge reraise in a medium sized pot that's already seen a bet and raise, then you'll end up with his stack later when you have a bigger hand than 1-pair. For now, assume he's got what he's representing (a hand better than 1-pair), and fold.

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

fold for reasons mentioned.

Re: NL50 CRAI on flop by a good player
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he routinely plays weak hands OOP... then you'll end up with his stack later

[/ QUOTE ]

ya hear that?