NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

Can I fold my JJ here?
Any advice is really welcome.

Ok, on the one hand side, folding JJ preflop doesn´t "feel" correct at NL10, given the strange plays you see there (saw someone shove with A7o couple of hands before this - different table - just happens so often), but then again, should the villain be a reasonable player, he either has an overpair or at least two overcards, so what´s the point in playing the hand, given the size of his reraise?

<u>Reads and History</u>:
I play the villain for the first time. I´m at the table for 25 hands. This is the 3rd hand I play. Hand #1 he saw me open-raise for 6BB and I didn´t get any callers. Hand #2 he saw me raise a limper up to 6BB, get one caller, make a c-bet and fold to a shove. Just by incident, these hands are pretty close together, like all in one orbit and a half or so.
Villian has not done anything out of the ordinary, he might be a bit loose with preflop limping.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $8.40
BB: $10.00
UTG: $9.65
Hero (UTG+1): $10.00
MP1: $7.70
MP2: $1.40
MP3: $7.20
CO: $12.60
BTN: $3.15

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.60</font>, 3 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $2.00</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.40

<font color="blue"> I don´t think he´s laying down QQ before the flop, so I see no point in shoving.

The plan is to see the flop, and commit if I make an overpair. But maybe even that is too loose?

By the way, does anyone like a big bet on some Ace-flop, trying to make him lay down QQ, KK then? Can that be profitable in the long run?</font>

Flop: ($4.15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $8.00</font>, CO calls $6.00

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

I'm still a hack, so take this for what it's worth

I like the pf play.

I don't like the "commit if I make an overpair" thinking. I'd prefer to bet half pot and see how your opponent responds.

I love to bet into ace high flops when 3bet. I'm not sure how 10nl players respond, but it seems to be effective at 25 and 50.

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

You explain a lot about your own table image but what about villain. Any other reads whatsoever?

Planning to commit on flop if you have an overpair is not too loose at all. SPR will be about 2-1. Not committing on flop with over pair would be atrocious.

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, does anyone like a big bet on some Ace-flop, trying to make him lay down QQ, KK then? Can that be profitable in the long run?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that you should wait until you move up to NL50 before thinking about making such a bet profitable. At least at 10NL, I see so many bad players refuse to give up KK, QQ when flop comes A high.

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the "commit if I make an overpair" thinking. I'd prefer to bet half pot and see how your opponent responds.

[/ QUOTE ]
With an SPR of 2-1 here, you really dont have a choice. Even against unknown, not committing with overpair on flop would be terrible.
If you are going to call the 3bet preflop OOP with no reads, you have ALREADY committed given that you flop an overpair. There is no room here for postflop nittery. Plan on getting it all in.

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the "commit if I make an overpair" thinking. I'd prefer to bet half pot and see how your opponent responds.

[/ QUOTE ]
With an SPR of 2-1 here, you really dont have a choice. Even against unknown, not committing with overpair on flop would be terrible.
If you are going to call the 3bet preflop OOP with no reads, you have ALREADY committed given that you flop an overpair. There is no room here for postflop nittery. Plan on getting it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right...personal strategy adjusted accordingly...I love these forums for this reason. You post your opinions and get corrected when you're wrong.

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the "commit if I make an overpair" thinking. I'd prefer to bet half pot and see how your opponent responds.

[/ QUOTE ]
With an SPR of 2-1 here, you really dont have a choice. Even against unknown, not committing with overpair on flop would be terrible.
If you are going to call the 3bet preflop OOP with no reads, you have ALREADY committed

[/ QUOTE ]

That´s right, so what about folding to his preflop 3-bet in the first place?
I mean, his 3-bet is rather big, and it really looks like he wants to play for stacks, doesn´t it?

If so, what´s his range? Like JJ+,AK, AQs, if he plays well and gives me respect, or like "anything" if he is of the same kind like that other player that got stacked with A7o... he´s almost an unknown, and I tend to believe the average villain´s range is not that wide.

Anyone who likes a fold?

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

Folding preflop is a viable option here as well, especialy if you think that villains range is narrow. You will be OOP for the remainder of the hand and possibly beaten already. This is a tough spot given no read on viilain. There is nothing wrong with folding this spot. My previous post was based on the fact that you were going to call the pf 3bet, which you did. Of course, folding is fine too. Just my two cents.

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

Pokerstoved!!! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Assuming he'd only 3-bet with 10-10+, AKs, and AKo (which is amazingly tight at $10NL) You're definitely getting odds to call here.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

421,226,784 games 0.005 secs 84,245,356,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.229% 41.86% 01.37% 176310408 5780460.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 56.771% 55.40% 01.37% 233355456 5780460.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }


---

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he'd only 3-bet with 10-10+, AKs, and AKo (which is amazingly tight at $10NL) You're definitely getting odds to call here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks!

But... I feel like I need a little theory lesson here.
See, the hand has not come to an end when I call and see the flop. Let´s say I make an overpair, then I am going to lose a lot if he has QQ+, but I am not going to win that much if he has AK. (Because I am not calling for set value, even though I made a set in the actual hand.)If he really has a hand (which I assume, I don´t think he wants to buy the pot preflop) then this is very likely going to be a play for stacks.

Even if we assume that implied odds are not that much against me, I am really risking 9,40 more to win a potential 20 (or 19,20 rather, raking away some of the pot). Or at least, it can end like that very easily, even if I make the right play.
If so, I need to be win 49% of the time!

Re: NL10 fold JJ preflop to 3-bet here?
 

Do you always raise that much preflop?

I think this is so hard do play without any reads, and I might tend to fold preflop. You're up against overpairs slightly more often than against AK, and you're losing alot more against the overpairs, then you win vs AK. Sometimes you see TT, but still I think you lose far more postflop than you win.

Leading out here on Ace-High flops can't be too profitable either. About 1/3 of the time you're up against AK and blow money, and KK or QQ won't fold that often to a single bet, and you must give up on such a board after that bet.

I can't see how calling here can be +EV, it might be about EV 0, but i tend to fold.