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-   -   1010 in raised pot flop 444? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=505229)

squidladder 09-20-2007 08:30 AM

1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
Villain is 13/11 over 100 hands
Anyone know what hand ranges a Pre flop percentage raise of 11% is?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $0.85</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($4.1, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $3.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $13</font>,

Pokerdemic 09-20-2007 08:31 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
what are the starting stacks?

squidladder 09-20-2007 08:35 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
starting stacks Hero 33
Villain 55

robsmith82 09-20-2007 08:46 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
Villains range is something like 66-QQ I think. Possibly more pocket pairs as well but I doubt very much its 22-55 or AK etc. I shove here expecting to see pocket nines or something.

0524432 09-20-2007 08:53 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
the range &lt; TT (22-99,AK) that makes this play on this flop is significantly larger than the range &gt; TT (JJ-AA). Stack sizes make shoving turn correct. Results?

robsmith82 09-20-2007 08:55 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
I still like a flop shove. If villain has a smaller boat its very unlikely he'll let it go. If a scare card falls on the turn we may no longer get his whole stack.

Pokerdemic 09-20-2007 09:20 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
An aggression factor would help a lot here and any notes, as this is a very read dependent situation.

netstorm 09-20-2007 09:33 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
Its a 3bet pot vs. a nit! No way your TT is any good here. Also, make your 3bet a lot bigger, like $3,25-$3,50. You are giving him odds to call with any hand here.

vs. a range of 99+, AKs you are way behind

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

34,650 games 0.005 secs 6,930,000 games/sec

Board: 4c 4s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.206% 28.74% 02.47% 9958 855.00 { TcTs }
Hand 1: 68.794% 66.33% 02.47% 22982 855.00 { 99+, AKs }

Note that this range is still too wide for his flop play. I would put his range on JJ+, in which case you are behind even more, and are drawing to a 2 outer.

His preflop and flop looks like this:

Im a nit, but this card looks good, Ill raise PF
Oh, you8're 3betting me? I dont mind, I have a premium hand, Ill call.
444 flop? Excellent, I have a full house, and you are betting into me. Valueraise!!


If you call this, any J, Q, K, A or 4 kills your action, and you have to check/fold. Just fold this now.

squidladder 09-20-2007 09:50 AM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
Ya was unsure about nits range here and pushed all in to be shown JJ.
Where did ye find the hand ranges for pre flop raise percentages. Is it pokerstove or is there a list some where on the net.
If so will someone psot the link.
Cheers

netstorm 09-20-2007 12:04 PM

Re: 1010 in raised pot flop 444?
 
The calculations I did above were with pokerstove. However, that was based on the actions that were in the hand; I assigned him a range which I think was fit for that hand. It was still too wide, which I also said.

Pokerstove is able to show you how much 11% PF is. However, these ranges are based on which hand would win when hand x would go allin vs. hand y. Preflop ranges may vary.

What I mean by this is that a nit may decide to limp 66, but raise 67s OTB, even if 66 is a favorite over 76s.

I highly advise you to download pokerstove, and play with it a bit. Just google it. Its a free program.


*****EDIT: 11% PFR does not mean he will also call with 11% when you 3bet him, as in this hand ***** (it will be more like 3-4%)


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