Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

KC -3 - 3 units (tough place to play, young qbs never play well in arrowhead)
Denver -3.5 - 3 units (dont see jax scoring many on this tough d, see denver putting up at least 30 on one of the worst teams in the AFC)
Bills +17 - 1 unit (dont care who they are playing cause a 17 point spread in the NFL is just plain ridic!)
Oakland -3 - 1 unit (after 2 close ones and feeling like they had one stolen last week after the rat calls a TO a sec before oak kicks the game winner, i see them coming out fired up + clevland is terrible...last week was just an abomonation, not to mention oak d is solid this year and should all but shut out the browns)

NFL YTD 5-3 (up 1 unit)
NFL YTD on 2+2 0-0

Also, love USC(-25) at home on sat.

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

(dont care who they are playing cause a 17 point spread in the NFL is just plain ridic!)


I've said that everytime I've taken the 17 using that as justification .... I've lost every time

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

[ QUOTE ]
KC -3 - 3 units (tough place to play, young qbs never play well in arrowhead)
Denver -3.5 - 3 units (dont see jax scoring many on this tough d, see denver putting up at least 30 on one of the worst teams in the AFC)
Bills +17 - 1 unit (dont care who they are playing cause a 17 point spread in the NFL is just plain ridic!)
Oakland -3 - 1 unit (after 2 close ones and feeling like they had one stolen last week after the rat calls a TO a sec before oak kicks the game winner, i see them coming out fired up + clevland is terrible...last week was just an abomonation, not to mention oak d is solid this year and should all but shut out the browns)

NFL YTD 5-3 (up 1 unit)
NFL YTD on 2+2 0-0

Also, love USC(-25) at home on sat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like KC as well, hopefully when I bet I can get 2 or 2.5. As you said Arrowhead is tough to play in, Jackson was awful last week with 4 picks.

The Denver game makes me nervous because the line hasent moved much and the public is on Denver at almost 70%. Last week the public was on the Bengals and the line didnt move much.

If the public was on the Pats big I would like the Bills, but im not sure about this game either. I will probably abstain.

I like Oakland as well because I think the Browns might be overvalued because they got to play against a JV defense last week, and the Raiders hung with Denver last week.

I am also watching the SD vs GB game to see how much the line gets bet up. Its at 5 now, I wonder if it will get to 6 or 6.5. If so I think I might look at taking GB.

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KC -3 - 3 units (tough place to play, young qbs never play well in arrowhead)


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I like KC as well, hopefully when I bet I can get 2 or 2.5. As you said Arrowhead is tough to play in, Jackson was awful last week with 4 picks.



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Take this analysis with a grain of salt because I am a Vikings fan:

Both are running teams. MN's run defense is way better than KC's run defense. MN's running attack has been better than KC's this year. MN pass defense has shown to be improved this year as well, only giving up 20 points(thru OT) to a pass-only Lions team last week(that was in addition to Minny's offense turning the ball over 6 times, twice in their own territory)

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

if denver somehow goes to 2.5 which wont happen that would be ills but it was 3 on sportsbook for like 5 seconds

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

First this is coming from a Cheifs fan so keep that in mind. With Jared Allen coming back from suspension, I give a slight edge to KCs d in this one. All week on the radio, all sportstalk guys are saying that LJ wants 40 carries. Herm said he isnt getting 40, but will get at least 30. The cheifs are 11-1 when he carries it more than 30 times. I just see emotion playing a huge factor in this game and the cheifs win in a romp.

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

[ QUOTE ]
First this is coming from a Cheifs fan so keep that in mind. With Jared Allen coming back from suspension, I give a slight edge to KCs d in this one.

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Rose-colored glasses for sure dude. The Vikings are 6th in the league this year against the run, they were 1st last year by a wide margin. Their numbers against the pass are skewed, because nobody runs against them.

The Vikes are 3rd in the NFL for least points allowed, 1st in the NFL for defensive TD's, tied for 1st for sacks, and 2nd for interceptions.


From homer to homer, how about a no-vig side bet on the game?

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

This will not be one of the four (slight chance for five) games the Chiefs win this year, FWIW.

-P

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

[ QUOTE ]
This will not be one of the four (slight chance for five) games the Chiefs win this year, FWIW.

-P

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Offer 10:1?

...

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Cant_wins week 3 predicts
 

Heh. Fair enough. here's some info to back it:

I did quite a bit of handicapping on the Chief's schedule as part of my "Chiefs do not make the playoffs" string of bets that I abused some people on. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

This is a bad matchup for the Chiefs for several reasons. Chiefs fans know this is going to be a rebuilding year and the "arrowhead effect" is going to suffer as a result. Not to mention the Arrowhead effect is vastly overrated, especially in recent years. As is Larry Johnson's running ability given the Chief's one dimensional attack and significant problems at offensive line. The Chiefs are going to mightily struggle this year, especially so against teams that can stop the run. The vikings can stop the run.

KC will struggle mightily to win five games this season. This is by no means a "lock" or a sure thing. But i do not like the Chiefs -3, fwiw.

-P