NL5: Is this an easy fold? Huge river overbet on strange board
 

Hi all,

Here's a hand that puzzled me. I've sat down 3 orbits ago. CO is a total call station, BTN seems tight passive. He hasn't raised a hand preflop and he only raised once on the turn to win a pot without showdown. I was quite in a few pots so far.


SB 3 ($1.36 in chips)
BB 4 ($1.15 in chips)
UTG ($0.62 in chips)
UTG+1 ($4.34 in chips)
UTG+2 ($2.08 in chips)
UTG+3 ($5.78 in chips)
Hero ($5.20 in chips)
MP ($2.42 in chips)
CO ($3.13 in chips)
BTN ($7.24 in chips)

Dealt to Hero Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

3 folds, <font color="red"> Hero raises $0.16 </font>, MP folds, CO calls, BTN calls, blinds fold.

FLOP ($0.48) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 checks
<font color="blue"> This didn't look like a good flop for a cbet to me. I figured a T is a likely holding and the call station will call with any two so I want a hand against him </font>

TURN ($0.48) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> Hero bets $0.36 </font>, 2 calls
<font color="blue"> I figured one caller to have the flush draw. The other call I did not expect. I figured a T would have bet the flop so it's likely that a Q is out there, KJ maybe </font>

RIVER ($1.86) 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> Hero bets $1.20 </font>, CO folds,<font color="red"> BTN raises all in $6.72 </font>. Hero??

<font color="blue"> I bet because I thought I had the best hand. I was expecting a Q to call and given the passive nature of the two I did not think a check would get a busted draw to bet. The AI raise was a surprise and I was not sure how to react to it as I can't see what hand does this. A2 I figure would have raised on the turn. </font>

Do you think my line was wrong at any point? How do you handle the river raise and what do you put the button on?

Re: NL5: Is this an easy fold? Huge river overbet on strange board
 

[ QUOTE ]

FLOP ($0.48) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 checks
<font color="blue"> This didn't look like a good flop for a cbet to me. I figured a T is a likely holding and the call station will call with any two so I want a hand against him </font>


[/ QUOTE ]
c-bet

Re: NL5: Is this an easy fold? Huge river overbet on strange board
 

Flop: I c-bet this all day; a paired board is less likely to have hit your opponents.

As Played: I fold the river. Assuming your read on the Button is correct, tight/passive players do not raise all in on the river without being able to beat TP2K.

Re: NL5: Is this an easy fold? Huge river overbet on strange board
 

I would also have checked flop. I've found that betting air into a station is spew. They are both passive, so they might both flat call and you'd find out nothing.

I'd check/call a reasonable bet at the river. IMO if someone flopped top pair they usually don't fold even when you represent the turned scare card. Don't call river. People who raise-bluff the aggressor usually aren't bluffing, and if they do bluff you'll find it out very quickly since they get called so often and you'll be able to make a note then.

I have no idea what the button might have had. Hand reading is a bit hard at NL5. I think the most useful thing to do is watch what your opponents play and how they play it, then you'll be able to make much better guesses on their hands. Also pay attention which villains get stacked with middle pair, TPNK etc so that you know to value bet as much as possible.

Also my usual opening raise at NL5 is 5xBB, I found it to effectively weed out random hands and the pot grows quicker. Not saying that 4BB is bad, just pointing out that it worked well for me.

Re: NL5: Is this an easy fold? Huge river overbet on strange board
 

fold river

Re: NL5: Is this an easy fold? Huge river overbet on strange board
 

Bot on tilt nails it here.

Dont bluff callstations (that includes c-bets a lot of the time - even if paired boards are nice for a c-bet)

I cant see a hand your good against here with the exception of air.
I think he has the T here most of the time, if he is brave enough to shove air here then bless his soul.