Flop bottom set villain\'s hand changes at river
 

Villain just arrived from feeder most move. He comes bearing 2+racks won from there.

Hero limps utg with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], utg+1 calls, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls, sb completes, bb checks.

FLOP:
7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

sb checks, bb leads, hero raises, utg+1 calls, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls, sb folds, bb 3 bets, hero caps, utg+1 folds, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls, bb calls.

TURN:
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

bb says "told you this was my pot" and leads, hero calls, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls.

RIVER:
10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

bb leads, hero raises, mp2 folds, mp3 folds, co folds, bb thinks for a bit and raises...


2 questions:

Initially my read was 95% he flopped the joint. Very very strong read. Given that read...

-on the flop/turn, should I ever be raising the turn for value against the straight/flush draws and fold river UI?

-should I ever go to 4 bets here or give him credit for a badly played A-10?

Re: Flop bottom set villain\'s hand changes at river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Initially my read was 95% he flopped the joint. Very very strong read. Given that read...

-on the flop/turn, should I ever be raising the turn for value against the straight/flush draws and fold river UI?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you were absolutely sure bb has a straight on the turn, you're not gaining anything by raising the turn.

that said, if i didn't have that super read, i would raise this turn like always, even if i *strongly* suspected he had a straight.

also, i would 4-bet the river given your read.

Re: Flop bottom set villain\'s hand changes at river
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain just arrived from feeder most move. He comes bearing 2+racks won from there.

Hero limps utg with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], utg+1 calls, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls, sb completes, bb checks.

FLOP:
7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

sb checks, bb leads, hero raises, utg+1 calls, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls, sb folds, bb 3 bets, hero caps, utg+1 folds, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls, bb calls.

TURN:
A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

bb says "told you this was my pot" and leads, hero calls, mp2 calls, mp3 calls, co calls.

RIVER:
10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

bb leads, hero raises, mp2 folds, mp3 folds, co folds, bb thinks for a bit and raises...


2 questions:

Initially my read was 95% he flopped the joint. Very very strong read. Given that read...

-on the flop/turn, should I ever be raising the turn for value against the straight/flush draws and fold river UI?

-should I ever go to 4 bets here or give him credit for a badly played A-10?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you had raised the turn you'd know whether or not you are dealing with a straight on the river or a better full house. Plus the turn raise either gets the other draws out or taxes them to stay in.

The river decision is based on your read of the player; ie, does he tend to overvalue his hands, thinking his flopped straight is still good. The fact that he "thinks a bit" before raising the river makes me believe he doesn't have A10, unless he is just Hollywooding.