NFL Thursday
 

Saints +6

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Thanks for the insight

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Sorry I don't do writeups...

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Easy U53 on this game for me. Overvalued offenses in this game creating a big line that is already moved high before release as the public as usual loads up on the overs in this situation. Line was released at 50.5 and is now at 53. probably in minority on this but don't care.

So as I said U53 1unit

Re: NFL Thursday
 

what makes you think these offense are overvalued?

If you'd said overvalued teams I'd be in agreement, but not because of the offenses

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Colts are not as much deep ball team as they once were and the public still pictures the colts of years past with lots of scoring quickly. It is not the way they are anymore. They still score but in much more managed controlled manner.

Colts and Saints are very time oriented pass offenses, which historically are slow starters in first game leading to larger amount of incompletions. Preseason doesn't fix this as speed of game is different between then and season just as in playoffs.

I also feel the Defenses are undervalued in this game. Both have made improvements over offseason. Saints are solid defense against the pass as are the Colts. Colts lost players to free agency but the difference maker Sanders is still there. Also feel Colts improved at Corner in terms of tackling ability which hurt them against the run last season.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

"Both have made improvements over offseason"

this just isnt true. not that i dont agree on the under but there is no way the colts D is better than it was.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

Colts -255, 4u

There definitely isn't four units of value in this pick but I felt like a degenerate today, I would put 1-2 on the moneyline.

YTD: 4-1-0, +4.90u
CFB: 4-1-0, +4.90u
NFL: 0-0-0, +0.00u

Re: NFL Thursday
 

[ QUOTE ]
Colts are not as much deep ball team as they once were and the public still pictures the colts of years past with lots of scoring quickly. It is not the way they are anymore. They still score but in much more managed controlled manner.

Colts and Saints are very time oriented pass offenses, which historically are slow starters in first game leading to larger amount of incompletions. Preseason doesn't fix this as speed of game is different between then and season just as in playoffs.

I also feel the Defenses are undervalued in this game. Both have made improvements over offseason. Saints are solid defense against the pass as are the Colts. Colts lost players to free agency but the difference maker Sanders is still there. Also feel Colts improved at Corner in terms of tackling ability which hurt them against the run last season.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Colts have scored 24, 24, 26 points in week one games the last three years and that includes the Patriots and Ravens defenses.

I'm not sure where your basing this "new" Colts offense from. Maybe the Superbowl and the Ravens playoff game? Unless they are playing a team in a cover two shell they still put the ball down the field. The offense is the same one they have been running, it's just about Peyton's decisions on where to go with the ball and reading the defenses better.

The Saints pass defense has replaced Fred Thomas with Jason David. While David is an improvement (a one leg midget would have been) he has played mostly zone defenses in his career and is really just an average cover two corner. Last year they were able to get a good pass rush from their front four. I expect some regression from their defensive line this year.

The Colts lost half of their secondary in the offseason and their best run stopper in the preseason. I guess you can say that they added better tacklers, but I'm not sure how that effects their run defense as they were generally gashed through the middle. Also Kelvin Hayden made a nice pick in the Superbowl, but besides that he has never stood out to me.

The number does seem inflated, but I like the Colts -6 much better than I like the over or the under.

Re: NFL Thursday
 

I teased Indy -.5 and Under 59 for 2u