.5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

UTG seems taggy over roughly 50 hands. His pfr is a little low and his agression factor is a little high but that could be the sample size.

Re: .5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

i would fold the turn and that river donk is never getting a better hand to fold.

Re: .5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

Betting out on the river may or may not be the appropriate play, but I don't think you should have made it this far. Based on the flop action, I think villain's most likely hands, in order, are:
1) medium-low to medium-high pp
2) overplayed flush draw
3) set

If you thought villain could overplay his flush draw in this situation, then a 3-bet or turn c/r is appropriate. Otherwise, folding flop or floding turn is appropriate. Based on your read and his likely hands, the folding path is most appropriate, IMO.

Regarding your river bluff, I'd think about it this way. On the river, you beat busted flush draws anyway, and a set is not folding, so your action is only interesting against a pp. Then it's only a question of if you can induce a fold in a pocket pair. Imagining your opponent has pp 1/3 of the time and will fold 1/2 of the time when he does, You'd need a pot of 6 BB to make this B/E. Since that's the roughly the pot size, this play could be evaluated as pretty much meh.

Re: .5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

Check-folding the turn is standard.
River bluff is bad bad bad spew.

Re: .5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

OK yeah looking at it now the turn's a fold. I guess I was just being stubborn.

His agression factor was like 3.5 post flop so even with the small sample, I guess I sorta expected him to bet all the way.

Is the river bluff truly a spew? I was certainly considering C/C to try to pick up a bluff from a busted flush so I figured if I was willing to call, betting out was far superior in a 6.5 BB pot because the chance of folding a small pair and taking it down had to outweigh the value of whatever bluff I'd catch calling. And since I was clearly drawing at overs the bet seemed credible to me.

If he's got a flush draw more than 1/6th of the time menace I've gotta call don't I? And if I have to call isn't betting superior?

Re: .5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

I don't think the pot's quite big enough for me to want to call the turn bet. Even if I give you a full 6 outs for your AK, you need 6.83:1 to call. I'd probably check/fold both the turn and river here. Villain's flop raise and continual aggression makes me think that our UI AK isn't going to be good.

Re: .5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

if this guy looks OK ... then you are probably looking at something like this

88
77, 99, maybe TT
A8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
in clubs:
AT, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9 and maybe KQ, KJ, QT, A9

this doesn't look too promising, nor does your river bluff

Re: .5/1 Donked the Paint on the River
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's got a flush draw more than 1/6th of the time menace I've gotta call don't I? And if I have to call isn't betting superior?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think he's got a flush draw more than 1/6 of the time? Besides, even if he were on a flush draw that often, you would have to also assume that he's autobluffing the river 100% of the time for your estimate to begin to look correct.

Betting is bad because it prevents you from showing down a weak losing hand for free (when he checks through) and it also prevents him from bluffing, which means that you skew his hand range towards pairs and other made hands.