To bet the turn or not w/ set
 

Villain is a complete unknown to me. Should we bet turn for value/protection or check behind to induce bluffs and bets from weaker hands plus avoid going broke if villain has the flush?

By the way, I decided to bet $125 into $154 pot on turn. Bonus question, if villain were a regular TAG, which alternative would you prefer as standard?

EverestPoker Game #2017037693: Table Bamako-8 - $2.00/$4.00 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:42:01 - 2007/09/01
Seat 1: MsMilan ($412.60)
Seat 2: laurent1313 ($417.20)
Seat 3: el_catfish ($588.20)
Seat 4: sascha1507 ($283.40)
Seat 5: Rastafarid ($382.20)
Seat 6: HERO ($380.00)
laurent1313 posts the small blind of $2.00
el_catfish posts the big blind of $4.00
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO[J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
sascha1507 calls $4.00
Rastafarid folds
HERO raises to $18.00
MsMilan folds
laurent1313 calls $16.00
el_catfish folds
sascha1507 calls $14.00
*** FLOP *** [A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
laurent1313 checks
sascha1507 checks
HERO bets $48.00
laurent1313 calls $48.00
sascha1507 folds
*** TURN *** [A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
laurent1313 checks
HERO ?

Re: To bet the turn or not w/ set
 

Against an unknown I think i probably check behind the turn. Against a tag, I still think I check because I don't think most tags will crai will AoTc here and I don't see a tag ever having AK or AQ here.

Re: To bet the turn or not w/ set
 

But... if you think he'll call down with an Ace - then I probably bet bet because he'd probably be checkraising most combo flush draws on the flop. QT KQ etc.

It's hard to say what a tag would do because with a lot of the hands I'm listing, you'd be getting 3 bet with.

Re: To bet the turn or not w/ set
 

A on flop so more likely to bet

Re: To bet the turn or not w/ set
 

on avg I bet like 70% check like 30% vs uknowns and TAG regs.

Re: To bet the turn or not w/ set
 

Probably a check, but it's close.