3d8d in the Big Blind
 

I am in a pretty crazy NL game and the preflop standards of most players are extremely wide.

My stack is 600 and I am in the big blind with 3d8d.

UTG raises to 25, and the COMPLETE table calls. Pot is 250 on the flop. I decide to call for some lucky hit. The flop comes Ad7h2d. I check, UTG bets 70 and the complete table folds to me. I decide to call to hit my flush. Turn 3s.

What now? I know I am behind, but the pot is 390 and I have (imo) 14 outs, my stack is 510.

What would you do in this situation, I am 100% sure he had AJ (assume I saw his hand).....

What is the best move now?

Re: 3d8d in the Big Blind
 

CRai if he can fold AJ. If not, c/c. You can also throw out a weak blocking bet if you dont think he'll raise to give you odds to draw: about $150 would be good.

Re: 3d8d in the Big Blind
 

Actually, don't CRai. Your hand is pretty much face up and the pot is so bloated that he'll be getting huge odds on calling a push. I think with the blocking bet, you commit yourself to calling a shove b/c of how big the pot is. Plus, he bet small on the flop, so he may do it again (live players tend to bet smaller in general). So I think you should C/C any bet up $300.

Re: 3d8d in the Big Blind
 

Thank you, that's exactly what I did. I checked, and called his 180 bet (didn't like to call $180 this behind because he might fold if i hit the flush. He will pay me if i hit the 8 or 3).

It's a small -EV call for 180 but the implied odds are big enough to call 180. I was really thinking about c/pushing but i am happy i didn't do that. If he calls over more ofteh than 22% the shove is correct. But I think he will just always call this shove..

Thank you for your advice!

-Vincent

Re: 3d8d in the Big Blind
 

I mean if he calls over 78% of the time the shove is wrong. If he folds over 22% the shove is correct.

How do you guys estimate if a person calls this percentage? Do you guys really think this is a percentage issue or that most players like ALWAYS call or ALWAYS fold such a situation?

Do some of you act differently in such situations because of historical hands against a normal player?

If I decide to shove 2 hands here, any 3+ flush draw AND a hit set on flop or turn. Wouldn't that make me a lifetiem winner in this situation? Wouldn't he be best off folding his AJ over the course of 100 hands over calling?