Blind steal situation
 

330$ MTT, about 5 hours in. 60/132 people left. Average stacks around 22k. Blinds at 400/800

I raise to 2500 in HJ with A9o, folds to BB who calls.

Flop 4-4-9 two clubs. BB checks, I bet 3500, BB calls

Turn offsuit 8. BB checks, I bet 10,000.

Read is that BB plays any hand OOP defending his blind and will stack off with a draw, 9,4, or even pocket 7s if he thinks im stealing.

After the hand I didnt know if i was bluffing or value betting, which is usually not a good sign.

Re: Blind steal situation
 

I know average stacks were 22k...but what were yours and villains? what were antes?

Re: Blind steal situation
 

Sorry forgot that, I had 21k, villain covered me. So my turn bet commits me.

Re: Blind steal situation
 

if your read that he'll defend the blinds with any 2, I'd feel pretty good about being ahead, TT+ re-raises or shoves.

sh*t luck if he called pf w/ A4 or K4 and got bingo, but most likely he has 2 overs, small pp, or club draw...club draw or 2 overs+club draw I think would c/r the flop

so I think you're betting for value here (but what do I know, I suck)

Re: Blind steal situation
 

looks fine, don't see him having you beat here. Not sure about the betsize though, that is probably the biggest question regarding this hand.

Re: Blind steal situation
 

The turn I think is a check or push situation, cause with your 10k bet you commit yourself anyway, here I think the check is the much better choice.

If it is a blind defender you look for a showdown, as you will win it most of the time.

Re: Blind steal situation
 

but if he'll win it most of the time why not value bet it levaa?

Re: Blind steal situation
 

if it is a blind-defender he will win most of the time, unless there is a winning card for villain on the river.

i don't think that this will be a blind defender anytime, it can be, but villain could hold an overpair to the nines too, or even hold a 4.

i think this is a bet-size problem as i said, you can't value-bet without a push and as there is a good ammount of uncertainty i would keep the pot small and check the turn.

Re: Blind steal situation
 

Valueshove or valuebet as played turn...not much difference...the read means your definitely getting good value