100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

100NL. Villain is about 18/13/1.5 over about 65.

I decided to merely call PF here. My image has been very tight up to this point.

Given the villain's somewhat low PFR and AF, was I wrong to feel that I was either WA/WB here? I think that if all the chips go in on this flop, I'm either drawing to 11 outs or am crushed by AxAd. The few times I am ahead, I don't think villain will be putting much, if anything at all, into the pot. This is my reasoning for deciding to play a small pot here.

Was my decision good, or am I a complete idiot?

Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($438)
UTG ($101.40)
Hero ($216)
CO ($189.95)
Button ($124.55)
SB ($100)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $13.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $9.

Flop: ($27.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($27.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $18</font>, Hero calls $18.

River: ($63.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $25</font>, Hero calls $25.

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

your line is solid

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

This looks very weak-tight, gotta hate it. Reraise river at least, villains shows weakness all over the place.

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
This looks very weak-tight, gotta hate it. Reraise river at least, villains shows weakness all over the place.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands can we expect villain to call a river raise with here that hero is ahead of?

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

I bet the flop always - let him call with Adx or AQ etc

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop always - let him call with Adx or AQ etc

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

Wait. When was 11 outs considered way behind? Did I miss that memo?

Pokerstoving:

Hand 0: 74.441% 73.89% 00.55% 42429 315.00 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 25.559% 25.01% 00.55% 14361 315.00 { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ }

I'd be happy getting it in on the flop. For all the times you're semi-crushed (35% equity against QQ here isn't bad), there are times when he's doing it with AdK/JdJ/AQ.

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop always - let him call with Adx or AQ etc

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that villain will almost always be calling a flop bet when he's holding Adx or AQ here. However, since I'm holding two kings and there is a Q on the board, it's less likely that he's holding AK or AQ. Given his stats and his PF reraise of my UTG+1 raise, can we really include other Adx hands in his range?

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wait. When was 11 outs considered way behind? Did I miss that memo?


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for pointing out that error. I'm not quite sure what I was thinking when I typed that [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img].

Also, thanks for running those numbers. I think your range may be a bit optimistic (TT and non-diamond JJ, AJ), but even so, it does seem that hero has an equity edge when all the chips go in against a slightly narrower range.

Re: 100NL - Line check with overpair and 2nd nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This looks very weak-tight, gotta hate it. Reraise river at least, villains shows weakness all over the place.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands can we expect villain to call a river raise with here that hero is ahead of?

[/ QUOTE ]Let villain decide wheter to call or not with his weak holding (AQ for example)