200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

Villain is Giveusakiss, he's a small winner over 14k hands. He runs 16/8. He does weird things like min-raise PF after a few limpers. I'm having trouble putting him on a hand here, as only a complete retard would call that flop with 57 unless it were hearts, yet he didn't raise on a somewhat scary board. I know people will critisize the turn check. Here are my reasons. He expects me to bet trips. Because of this, he may take a shot at the pot with just an 8, or a draw. It's also possible that I'm beat, since he's pretty nitty. I should probably fold the river based on his image, but man the board isn't that scary. Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $192.00
Hero (BB): $200.00
UTG: $200.00
UTG+1: $361.50
MP1: $496.10
MP2: $355.00
CO: $92.70
BTN: $200.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $2.00, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.00, CO calls $2.00, BTN calls $2.00, SB calls $1.00, Hero checks

Flop: ($12) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11.00</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $11.00, 3 folds

Turn: ($34) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $34.00</font>, Hero calls $34.00

River: ($102) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP2 bets $102.00</font>, Hero ?
Pot Size: $306.00 ($3 Rake)

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

You're posting this because he had 8,8 obv. I usually bet the turn though, river is interesting after you checked the turn. I'm not really sure what's right but it REALLY looks like 8,8.

edit: I guess I'm wrong after the PM I got so I'm sorry. I stand by that I usually bet this turn though, and after I checked it and called the turn I guess I call the river too just hoping that he's bluffing.

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

I think that I shove the last $50 in. He has diamonds like never. 86s is possible, but unlikely and 88 and 66 are out of the question. 67 and 65 are his most likely hands and your kicker plays vs. those. Like you said 7h5h is the only possible way he ever gets there with a draw. I guess he has A6s once in a while, but folding would be pretty bad here given that you let him bet both the turn and river.

edit: 88 is not out of the question as in he never has it, but I think an 16/8 would raise this from MP2 the vast majority of the time.

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

fold if you have any respect for villain's game

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

Fold turn.

and definitely fold river.

Looks like A6 (possibly 88).

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

I think your decision point is the turn. If you think your trips are good, you shove there, not call. I don't mind the check on the turn, just the call. I think I would prefer to b/f the turn, though, since that does give you a chance to get away from it.

As played, I call river. Is that a leak?

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fold turn.

and definitely fold river.

Looks like A6 (possibly 88).

[/ QUOTE ]

why is A6 more likely than 76 or 65? Personally I think the latter two are more likely.

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

It is more likely since the OP's hand is somewhat transparent as 6x and he is saying he can beat 6x.

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

OP's hand DOES look like 6x, so Villain by definition would have to have better than a blank 6. A6, backdoor flushes, and 88 all have you pwned here and show up pretty often, so fold.

Re: 200 NL. My trips face a big river bet.
 

I don't know how transparent the hand is, he played it pretty weak. I would have expected a turn c/r and might put him on a draw. If I had a draw too and wanted to bluff him out of a showdown I wouldn't bet so much on the river though.

I think you are beat.