How much action with a set?
 

Villian has been getting sick of me, it seems. He's turned quite aggressive, and is giving lots of action. Did I give too much action here? Am I guilty of being BrassMonkey, spewdonkey, once again?

Dunno what's wrong with the hand converter, but here goes...

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises</font>, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 3http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif, Thttp://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...miles/club.gif [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]SB bets</font>, BB folds, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...iles/heart.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]SB bets</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB 3-bets</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 2http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...es/diamond.gif [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]SB bets</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises</font>, [color=#CC3333]SB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 20.50 BB

Re: How much action with a set?
 

1 too many. Call river

Re: How much action with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
1 too many. Call river

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you mean 2 too many... [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Re: How much action with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
1 too many. Call river

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you mean 2 too many... [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah well, you know...


You did show a lot of strength on the turn so when he bets into you after your cap its time to call because you cant fold to a raise and because your hand is far from teh nutz

Re: How much action with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
its time to call because you cant fold to a raise and because your hand is far from teh nutz

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree with all of you. your hand is not far from the nuts. you have the 4th nuts, and probably the "2nd nuts" given preflop action. given the wording of the OP, looks like hero was behind, but we don't have this info during the hand so i'm capping the river too. you really think he has 69 or J9 given preflop action? he's been GIVING us tons of action, so TAKE it. he could have an overpair. if you're afraid of TT you're losing value. set over set is so rare. just cap it and if he has you beat it's not your day.

Re: How much action with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
you have the 4th nuts, and probably the "2nd nuts" given preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops I missed the preflop action!


Ok so SB 3-bet pre. I think this makes the river raise somewhat better.

However, I still think its a call on the river. On the turn you are basically saying: "I got a set or a straight". On the river villain says: "I dont care"

So IMO its still a call. But not because of the possible straight. His range is very narrow and skewed towards TT. Hero could still be up against a set or a retarded played overpair.

EDIT: 77 is just as likely if not even more likely than TT. River raise is not terrible but I think that hero is up against these two hands the vast majority of the time giving him 50%. River is close, but I still call.

Re: How much action with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you have the 4th nuts, and probably the "2nd nuts" given preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops I missed the preflop action!


Ok so SB 3-bet pre. I think this makes the river raise somewhat better.

However, I still think its a call on the river. On the turn you are basically saying: "I got a set or a straight". On the river villain says: "I dont care"

So IMO its still a call. But not because of the possible straight. His range is very narrow and skewed towards TT. Hero could still be up against a set or a retarded played overpair.

EDIT: 77 is just as likely if not even more likely than TT. River raise is not terrible but I think that hero is up against these two hands the vast majority of the time giving him 50%. River is close, but I still call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woooooot! I just wanted to hear the words "river raise is not terrible". God bless you, Oinkster.

Re: How much action with a set?
 

*grunch*
actually it looks ok the only thing we are afraid of is 1010, but we might consider just calling the river bet. Even though he is tired of you his river donk after you capped the turn is showing a lot of strenght. i am pretty shure we can rule out the straight (j9,96)

Re: How much action with a set?
 

I don't have [censored] to do today at work, so I downloaded and installed pstove

I discounted AA and KK by 1/2, QQ by 2/3, and JJ by 5/6. discounted J9s by 3/4 and J9o by 5/6. TT/88/77 have full weighting. does that sound somewhat reasonable?
vs that range we are 66% EQ on the river

if we take out all J9 combos and give full weighting to AA and KK, we are an 86% favourite

so it looks like this spot comes down to:
will villain play an overpair like this?
how likely is villain to have J9?

Re: How much action with a set?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have [censored] to do today at work, so I downloaded and installed pstove

I discounted AA and KK by 1/2, QQ by 2/3, and JJ by 5/6. discounted J9s by 3/4 and J9o by 5/6. TT/88/77 have full weighting. does that sound somewhat reasonable?
vs that range we are 66% EQ on the river

if we take out all J9 combos and give full weighting to AA and KK, we are an 86% favourite

so it looks like this spot comes down to:
will villain play an overpair like this?
how likely is villain to have J9?

[/ QUOTE ]

Oooo, nice work. He's not likely to play J9 like that pre-flop at ALL. About the only hands I can see him playing like this are 77, 88, TT, AA, with a full weighting on 77-TT and maybe a half weighting on AA. Things don't look as good then, huh? Where does that leave us?