Political futures markets
 

does anyone here on the politics board buy and sell political futures online like at intrade.com


This year I have started doing so. I am selling Obama dem nominee futures and buying some republican president 2008 futures.

I'm not really convinced the Republicans will win the whitehouse but at intrade.com the futures are going for 39 (buy at 39, pays 100 if it wins, or sell for 39, owe 100 if it wins). I fully expect to hedge when it goes up during the actual campaign.

On selling obama: this is as close to a free money bet as I have ever seen. He's an amateur running against a total pro: hillary. She will not make any missteps but Obama already has and I expect more of 'em.

Any other thoughts from political futures players?

natedogg

Re: Political futures markets
 

what's ron paul going for?

Re: Political futures markets
 

4.1

I recommend a pass. It's not worth the sell and it's a foolish gamble to buy it.

natedogg

Re: Political futures markets
 

I think Rep Pres is a god at 39. I think they are going to get completely clobbered.

Obama has charisma, hillary doesn't. If Bush proved anything it it that charisma matters.

Re: Political futures markets
 

Pump and dump much?

Anyway, I like your analysis- its just a bitch having your money tied up for so long without a huge edge.

Re: Political futures markets
 

I found this market near the end of the 2006 cycle and it seemed to me that there was a lot of easy money to be made. Even when races were basically set in stone in the final week, some were still paying very solid returns. The Maryland Senate race comes to mind.

The volume wasn't there too much, except in the larger races (Senate races, control of House/Senate), which prevented a lot of opportunity to play off of movements.

Re: Political futures markets
 

I agree with Berge's assessment. If I wasn't lazy about putting money on these sites, there was a lot of value floating around. I suppose the lesson is to hold off on placing bets now and wait until closer to the elections when there is more of an edge. The uncertainty of events over the next 6-15 months and the opportunity cost is going to eat up a lot of profits.

But calling Obama free money when he's neck and neck with Hillary in fundraising and better on the stump is silly.

Re: Political futures markets
 

I like the GOP at 39 given recent campaign history. I just can't see any of the Dems actually winning. Specifically I think Romney may win.

Although I'm not about to tie my money up that long for an edge that small.

Related question: If Romney is the nominee, would he win Massachusetts?

Re: Political futures markets
 

[ QUOTE ]
I found the Bodog market near the end of the 2006 cycle and it was free money.

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Re: Political futures markets
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think Rep Pres is a god at 39. I think they are going to get completely clobbered.

Obama has charisma, hillary doesn't. If Bush proved anything it it that charisma matters.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you're saying. You say that selling Rep Prez at 39 is a great deal when you say "is a god"?

I think many, many people are conflating the question of "unnamed republican" vs. "current republican, Bush" when they respond to these Dem. vs. Rep polls.

that is my 2 cents and that's why I think buying republicans to win the whitehouse at 39 is as close to free money as you can get. the idea is to hedge it at 50 or so (or even higher if you get lucky) to lock up a nice 5 or 6% which at that point will be entirely risk free.

And if the republicans look good you may be able to hedge it for more and/or choose to ride it all the way. If it turns out to be Hillary or Obama vs. Non-George-Bush republican they have a tough battle and a 60% edge is just too much. The odds are quite good that the race will poll 50/50 for the most part.

The only scenario where I'm really confused is if it's Hillary vs. Romney. An unelectable harpy vs. unelectable religious cult member. Not sure how that will play out.


natedogg