Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

I just doubled a few hands back vs. Erick when I had a bigger flush draw vs. his flush draw in a limped pot. I was on shortstack until then. Not much info on PFR, and I haven't seen Erick coldcalling that much.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3186407895: $55,000 Guarantee (24002603), Table 17 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:40:32 ET - 2007/08/07
dimathegrinder (Observer): ?
Seat 1: TommyDukes (18,728)
Seat 2: BKiCe (11,368)
Seat 3: ginter (13,807)
Seat 4: Whipsaw3 (30,075)
Seat 5: Jimmy3times (8,826)
Seat 6: UbsoLute (62,275)
Seat 7: Erick Lindgren (53,096)
Seat 8: HolezLikeSwiss (22,332)
Seat 9: yoren8 (29,650)
TommyDukes antes 125
BKiCe antes 125
ginter antes 125
Whipsaw3 antes 125
Jimmy3times antes 125
UbsoLute antes 125
Erick Lindgren antes 125
HolezLikeSwiss antes 125
yoren8 antes 125
ginter posts the small blind of 500
Whipsaw3 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yoren8 [A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
Jimmy3times folds
UbsoLute has 15 seconds left to act
UbsoLute raises to 2,500
Erick Lindgren calls 2,500
HolezLikeSwiss folds
yoren8 ?

I'll just start w/ preflop.

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

10750 to go

or shove

or a call isnt terrible

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

i'm thinking about playing safe and calling
but squeezing is probably +ev

i'll check the math...

125*9 + 1500 + 5000 = 7625 pot

I’ve no idea how either play so maybe you wanna tinker the ranges but I’ll treat them both as solidish

Ubsolute = 88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ 7.4%
Erick = 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo+ 9.2% of hands



If ubsolute pushes with…

TT+,AQs+,Ako 3.8% of hands

(I’ll put it tightish because he should be scared about getting stacked by Erick because hes the only player at the table who can break him and he could be trapping)

Erick will only call that with…

QQ + 1.4% of hands

(ak is only 44% vs that range)

This happens 7% of time and your 20% equity



ubsolute pushes Erick folds…

this happens 44% of time and your 37% equity


If ubsolute folds erik calls with…

99+,AQs+,Ako 4.2% of hands

this happens 23% of time and your 39% equity


if they both fold 26% of time. 100% equity


TBC 7%
U win 62k 20%
U lose 30k 80%
= 12k-24k = -12k

1C1F 44%
u win 35k 37%
u lose 30k 63%
= 13k-19k = -6k

1C1F 23%
u win 35k 39%
u lose 30k 61%
= 14k-18k = -4k

TBF 26%
U win 8k = 8k

-0.84-3.78-0.92+2 = -3540 chips

-ev with those ranges but who knows if those ranges are right lol

pez

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

I like a call here.

Ryan

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm thinking about playing safe and calling
but squeezing is probably +ev

i'll check the math...

125*9 + 1500 + 5000 = 7625 pot

I’ve no idea how either play so maybe you wanna tinker the ranges but I’ll treat them both as solidish

Ubsolute = 88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ 7.4%
Erick = 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo+ 9.2% of hands



If ubsolute pushes with…

TT+,AQs+,Ako 3.8% of hands

(I’ll put it tightish because he should be scared about getting stacked by Erick because hes the only player at the table who can break him and he could be trapping)

Erick will only call that with…

QQ + 1.4% of hands

(ak is only 44% vs that range)

This happens 7% of time and your 20% equity



ubsolute pushes Erick folds…

this happens 44% of time and your 37% equity


If ubsolute folds erik calls with…

99+,AQs+,Ako 4.2% of hands

this happens 23% of time and your 39% equity


if they both fold 26% of time. 100% equity


TBC 7%
U win 62k 20%
U lose 30k 80%
= 12k-24k = -12k

1C1F 44%
u win 35k 37%
u lose 30k 63%
= 13k-19k = -6k

1C1F 23%
u win 35k 39%
u lose 30k 61%
= 14k-18k = -4k

TBF 26%
U win 8k = 8k

-0.84-3.78-0.92+2 = -3540 chips

-ev with those ranges but who knows if those ranges are right lol

pez

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if those ranges are right either or if those figures are useful considering how uncertain we are about both their ranges, but def appreciate the effort.

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

np, i often do these ranges things for myself when i'm not sure, its pretty crucial stuff to have down imo.

anyway calling ranges are slightly more important then raising ranges, and are probably closer to correct.

pez

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

Stacks are just way too [censored] here to 3-bet, and obv folding is too weak because AQs is awesome.. so just call.

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

the math and ranges look more or less ok (I don't know how he plays, either) but you can usually eyeball it at the table pretty easily. just remember you're around 35% against a calling range, and you can figure the rest out in 5 seconds.

anyway, I call and hope one of the shorties pushes because that basically solves the rest of the hand for you really quickly either way.

Re: Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren
 

Yeah given stacks a call is the best play here I think. I don't see folding as an option and without a great read on the PFR I guess raising or pushing is tough to do with limited information.

Against a more active guy I think a raise to 11k and calling a shove would be best.

Flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I just doubled a few hands back vs. Erick when I had a bigger flush draw vs. his flush draw in a limped pot. I was on shortstack until then. Not much info on PFR, and I haven't seen Erick coldcalling that much.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3186407895: $55,000 Guarantee (24002603), Table 17 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:40:32 ET - 2007/08/07
dimathegrinder (Observer): ?
Seat 1: TommyDukes (18,728)
Seat 2: BKiCe (11,368)
Seat 3: ginter (13,807)
Seat 4: Whipsaw3 (30,075)
Seat 5: Jimmy3times (8,826)
Seat 6: UbsoLute (62,275)
Seat 7: Erick Lindgren (53,096)
Seat 8: HolezLikeSwiss (22,332)
Seat 9: yoren8 (29,650)
TommyDukes antes 125
BKiCe antes 125
ginter antes 125
Whipsaw3 antes 125
Jimmy3times antes 125
UbsoLute antes 125
Erick Lindgren antes 125
HolezLikeSwiss antes 125
yoren8 antes 125
ginter posts the small blind of 500
Whipsaw3 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yoren8 [A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
Jimmy3times folds
UbsoLute has 15 seconds left to act
UbsoLute raises to 2,500
Erick Lindgren calls 2,500
HolezLikeSwiss folds
yoren8 ?


[/ QUOTE ]

yoren8 calls 2,500 (<font color="blue">I ended up calling and feel that this is optimal, if I had say 25k, I'd flip a coin between jamming and calling, and I'd def just move AI if I had 20k</font>)
TommyDukes folds
BKiCe folds
ginter calls 2,000
Whipsaw3 folds
*** FLOP *** [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] (Pot = 12125)
ginter checks
UbsoLute checks
Erick Lindgren checks
yoren8 ?

A) Check
B) Bet/call 5kish
C) Bet/call 9kish
D) Bet/call some other amount

Please state why you prefer the action you advise.