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-   -   stupid raise? (http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=471339)

DaycareInferno 08-07-2007 06:38 AM

stupid raise?
 
villain is 72/22/1.7 over about 50 datamined hands.

showdown numbers are 29/55

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $8.40
BB: $9.70
Hero (UTG): $11.10
BTN: $14.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $0.35, BB folds
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to Hero

Flop: ($0.90) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.70</font>, SB calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.30) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.70</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.65</font>, SB calls $2.95
Uncalled bet of $0.00 returned to SB

River: ($9.60) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Pot Size: $9.60 ($0.95 Rake)

what am i supposed to make of this guy's turn bet? i hate these awkward donk bets when i miss, because i can't call them, i hate to fold to them, and i don't know whether i can raise them or not.

kimos123 08-07-2007 06:51 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
i would fold and find a beter spot agaist a 72/22/1.7
he might have a flush draw or a small pair.
what was the result?

DaycareInferno 08-07-2007 06:54 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
he had an A6o. shouldn't his wtsd% be higher than that if he calls triple barrels with Ax/air/3rd pair? i'm trying to get better at using these particular stats, but they have been betraying me a little bit so far.

members_only 08-07-2007 07:38 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
i doubt wtsd stats are that reliable over 50 hands

Splossy 08-07-2007 07:46 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
If you think you can push him off it then the raise was fine obviously but his stats do look like those of a calling station. I also think the turn bet looks a bit like a push-off rather than a value bet due to it's size.

His turn bet was exactly what it looks like - he hit something very small.

Clearly he's a perfect opponent to simply value bet but not bluff.

Arctic 08-07-2007 08:04 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
My raising you just make the calling station outplay you.
I would fold it.

RajHendon 08-07-2007 08:19 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
Fold the turn without even a pair

selector2006 08-07-2007 08:28 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
Take a big piece of paper and stick it to the wall behind your computerscreen. Write on it:

"DO NOT BLUFF AGAINST VPIP &gt; 50%!!"

These guys are so insanely profitable, it's almost unbelievable. Just play decent, valuebet the hell out of them, but make sure you have one pair at least. (One pair is good enough to play for stacks against them, especially if you have AK and they have Ax).

InsideEdge 08-07-2007 08:54 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
Fold against this guy, maybe even check behind on the flop against this guy.

DiamondDog 08-07-2007 09:57 AM

Re: stupid raise?
 
I'm a noob, but FWIW, your c-bet didn't get him to fold, but it served it's other purpose - it told you the Villain probably had something.

The turn card still leaves you with nothing. Raising him there looks more than a tad spewy IMO.

No point wheeling out the c-bet if you're not going to listen to it when it tries to tell you something.

I'm a noob. I know nothing.


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