Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

Basically winner takes all payout structure.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter

SB (t2590)
Hero (t1405)
UTG (t2505)
MP1 (t3630)
MP2 (t740)
CO (t225)
Button (t2405)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t225</font>, Button calls t225, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1405</font>

Comments? Flames?

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

You dont think you dominate villian do you??

YOU could be dominated, and really at best its 60/40

Button could have AA, and someone not in could have TT+ or AK so... I dont like this at all

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

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You dont think you dominate villian do you??


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No, It's quite likely that I'm behind both of them pre-flop.




[ QUOTE ]
YOU could be dominated, and really at best its 60/40


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I could be dominated, but it's unlikely. My best case if I can isolate on the CO is probably 50/50 but I'm certainly not counting on it.

My reasoning for making this push is that if I can knock out the button, I'm getting close to 5-to-1 on my money. Of course, I'm risking my stack that the button doesn't have a hand he can call with.




[ QUOTE ]
Button could have AA, and someone not in could have TT+ or AK so...

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I'm not sure what you mean about someone not in...? I'm the BB.

Regarding the button having a big hand here, it's possible I guess. How many players flat call in this spot with a big hand? Is it not far more likely the button has a small pair or A,x that we will probably fold to my push?

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

Don't push this, call and see a flop.

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

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Don't push this, call and see a flop.

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Can you give me your reasoning? I concede that you're probably correct, but I'm not 100% sure.

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

A push is terrible your hand isn't strong enough to isolate and if button is calling he is way ahead it's just an awful push.

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

Isolating is worth probably 190-200 chips to you here when it works. When it doesn't work, you probably just cost yourself 425-450 chips. So my best guess is it needs to work 70% of the time for it to be better than folding. I don't really think that's happening, but it looks a lot better than my intuition told me.

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

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So my best guess is it needs to work 70% of the time for it to be better than folding.

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If that's true, I think it's a close decision since I can't see the button calling much more often than that.

Re: Stars $65 Satellite, Isolation Push from BB
 

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A push is terrible your hand isn't strong enough to isolate and if button is calling he is way ahead it's just an awful push.

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Well I did invite flames... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I agree that if the button calls he's way ahead. I'll still win some of those times anyway.

Put yourself in the button's shoes and estimate how often you limp in that spot with a hand you can then call my push with. Is it 30%, 50%, 70%...?